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Bank of America revises global GDP forecast to weakest since 2009

Thursday note from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

  • Project global growth for 2020 at 2.8%
  • slowest since 2009
  • Expect China to be weakest since 1990
And …
  • risks are still skewed to the downside
  • Our forecasts do not include a global pandemic that would basically shut down economic activity in many major cities
And, just thinking out loud …. does the coronavirus mean the yield curve inversion was right all along?

Dovish testimony from Powell, 3 rate cuts on the way, starting with 25bps in July

That’s the expectation from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch for the FOMC after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Wednesday

Powell “delivered a dovish testimony
  • hinting strongly at an upcoming cut
BoA ML:
  • expect a 25bp cut in July (31st)
  • and cuts thereafter at each of the following two meetings (September17-18 and October 29-30)
  • cumulative 75bp of easing
More from the note:
  • The Fed seems to be willing to dismiss the better data from the US and instead is focusing on the weaker global data.
  •  Indeed, when Powell was asked if the strong jobs report changed his views on cuts, he stated “no”. 

Gann’s 11 Rules of Success

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Our Favourite is number 6

Rule #1 : Strive for Success

To be successful the most important rule is to strive for success. This means you must exert effort and put a lot of hard work into your effort. You must have both the short term and long term charts necessary for trading the markets you trade. They must be always up-to-date and you need to watch them on a daily basis so your mind gets use to their price and time movement. You will then learn the secret of trading and see how the entire price movement continually evolves.

Rule #2: No One Owes You Anything

You must succeed on your own. It is all up to you. The markets, stockbrokers, brokerage firms, news letters don’t owe you anything. Gann never took anyone’s newsletter. He did it all himself. The markets are there to provide you a service for buying and selling the markets you are trading. They really don’t care that you make money. The markets are there for the brokerage fees. The more you trade, the more money the brokerage firms and exchanges make. You must be knowledgeable of a reliable trading method that you can use to extract money from these markets. This method must be able to help you understand the price structure of the markets in regards to time and price movement.

Rule #3: Plan You’re Way to Profit

when you enter a trade you should have a figured a game plan for both the entry and exit of the trade. The plan should be definite and not subject to changes to your psychology during market hours. Gann knew exactly what he was doing all the time. You should have a stop in the market at all times, because you never know when a time cycle might turn against you. You should also have a profit objective in the market. So many traders today lose because they are using computer oscillators to trade with and they never know where they are going. They usually end up on trading with rumors and tips and use hope and fear to try to make a success of the markets. (more…)

12 Biggest Trading Losses in History

#12 German billionaire Adolf Merckle, one of the 100 richest people in the world, has killed himself by jumping in front of a train—emotionally “broken” over a bad bet on Volkswagen last year.

Merckle’s business interests came out on the wrong side of last year’s short squeeze of Volkswagen. Rival Porsche silently cornered the market on Volkswagen shares, and when they revealed the extent of their stake, the price of Volkswagen stock shot up to levels that made it briefly the world’s most valuable corporation. Many hedge funds who had bet against Volkswagen shares lost huge amounts of money, while Porsche made billions in profit.

Merckle, whose personal wealth was estimated at more than $9 billion reportedly lost a billion alone on the Volkswagen stock, which shocked his employees. The loss led to margin calls from other creditors and threatened to unravel his entire private business empire. Full Article

#11 Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt, the sons of Texas oil billionaire Haroldson Lafayette Hunt, Jr., had for some time been attempting to corner the market in silver.

The Hunt brothers had invested heavily in futures contracts through several brokers, including the brokerage firm Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, later Prudential-Bache Securities and Prudential Securities. When the price of silver dropped below their minimum margin requirement, they were issued a margin call for $100 million. The Hunts were unable to meet the margin call, and, with the brothers facing a potential $1.7 billion loss, the ensuing panic was felt in the financial markets in general, as well as commodities and futures. Many government officials feared that if the Hunts were unable to meet their debts, some large Wall Street brokerage firms and banks might collapse.

To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later launched an investigation into the Hunt brothers, who had failed to disclose that they in fact held a 6.5% stake in Bache. Full Article

#10 Under the leadership of CEO Heinz Schimmelbusch, German metals and engineering giant Metallgellschaft was on the brink of bankruptcy after losing $1.3 billion on speculative bets.  The firm bet on an increase in oil prices in oil futures markets, but oil prices dropped instead. Full Article

#9 Robert Citron lost $1.7 billion for Orange County, California forcing it into Chapter 9 bankruptcy.In 1994, Citron was Treasurer-Tax Collector for Orange County, California. As treasurer, Citron used a series of highly-leveraged deals that included repurchase agreements and floating rate notes.  Full Article (more…)

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