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Six Insights for Disciplined Trading

  
  Education
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1) Trading is a probability game.  You can’t be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. Your losses (that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you.

2) Jumping in too soon or getting in too late.  These mistakes come from traders not having a well-defined plan of how they will enter the market.  This positions the trader as a reactive trader instead of a proactive trader, which increase the level of emotion the trader will feel in reacting to market movements.  A written plan helps make a trader more systematic and objective, and reduces the risk that emotions will cause the trader to deviate from his plan.

3) Not taking profits on winners and letting winners turn to losers.  Again this is a function of not having a properly thought-out plan.  Entries are easy but exits are hard.  You must have a plan for how you will exit the market, both on your winners and your losers.  Then your job as a trader becomes to execute your plan precisely.

4) Great traders don’t place their own expectations on to the market’s behavior.  Poor traders expect the market to give them something.  When conditions change, a smart trader will recognize that, and take what the market gives. 

5) Emotional pain comes from expectations not being realized.  When you expect something, and it doesn’t deliver as expected, what occurs? Disappointment.  By not having expectations of the market, you are not setting yourself up for this inner turmoil.  Douglas states that the market doesn’t generate pain or pleasure inherently; the market only generates upticks and downticks.  It is how we perceive and respond to these upticks and downticks that determine how we feel.  This perception and feeling is a function of our beliefs.  If you’re still feeling pain when taking a loss according to your plan, you are still experiencing a belief that your loss is somehow a negative reflection on you personally. 

6) The Four Major Fears – fear of losing money, being wrong, missing out, leaving money on the table.  All of these fears result from thinking you know what will happen next. Your trading plan must approach trading as a probabilities game, where you know in advance you will win some and lose some, but that the odds will be in your favor over time.  If you approach trading thinking that you can’t take a loss, then take three losses in a row (which is to be expected in most trading methods), you will be emotionally devastated and will give up on your plan.

Beliefs of Winning Traders

  
  Education
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Winners share certain behaviors and beliefs.  Check to see if you possess the traits and beliefs of winning traders

1. My trading objectives are perfectly clear, and I truly believe I will achieve these goals. If you have the belief that you will win, you increase your chances of trading to win.  In order to have this level of conviction, you must have a thoroughly-tested plan.  You also must have a clear vision of how you will proceed with your plan to reach your goal.  The more detailed you can visualize your goals being achieved, the more you will strengthen your internal belief and confidence that you will reach your goals.

2. I have created a plan to achieve my trading goals. I’m sure you’ve heard the saying “I didn’t plan to fail; I failed to plan.”  Without a plan, your results will tend to be mixed and uninspiring.  Commit to writing down your trading plan, and make sure you can answer the questions found in a recent TrendWatch on creating your trading plan.

3. I prepare my plan before the trading day starts. If you don’t have a plan of action once the trading bell rings, you are moving from the proactive mentality into a reactive approach.  I contend that the more reactive you become, the more you will get in late to market moves and dramatically diminish your reward-to-risk ratio. I prepare after the close for the next day’s trading, seeking to stay proactive and a step ahead of the rest of the crowd.

4. I regularly monitor my trading results to measure my progress toward my goals. Trading results tend to follow a zig-zag approach similar to how a plane is guided to its destination.  At periodic steps along the way, if a pilot is off course, they will set a new course towards the target.  This is called course correction.   Once you have defined your trading target, your periodic evaluation should lead you to assess what is taking you off course and encourage you to make the necessary corrections to get you back on target. (more…)

Checklist for Sucess in Trading

  
  Education
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1. My trading objectives are perfectly clear, and I truly believe I will achieve these goals. If you have the belief that you will win, you increase your chances of trading to win.  In order to have this level of conviction, you must have a thoroughly-tested plan.  You also must have a clear vision of how you will proceed with your plan to reach your goal.  The more detailed you can visualize your goals being achieved, the more you will strengthen your internal belief and confidence that you will reach your goals.

2. I have created a plan to achieve my trading goals. I’m sure you’ve heard the saying “I didn’t plan to fail; I failed to plan.”  Without a plan, your results will tend to be mixed and uninspiring.  Commit to writing down your trading plan, and make sure you can answer the questions found in a recent TrendWatch on creating your trading plan.

3. I prepare my plan before the trading day starts. If you don’t have a plan of action once the trading bell rings, you are moving from the proactive mentality into a reactive approach.  I contend that the more reactive you become, the more you will get in late to market moves and dramatically diminish your reward-to-risk ratio. I prepare after the close for the next day’s trading, seeking to stay proactive and a step ahead of the rest of the crowd.

4. I regularly monitor my trading results to measure my progress toward my goals. Trading results tend to follow a zig-zag approach similar to how a plane is guided to its destination.  At periodic steps along the way, if a pilot is off course, they will set a new course towards the target.  This is called course correction.   Once you have defined your trading target, your periodic evaluation should lead you to assess what is taking you off course and encourage you to make the necessary corrections to get you back on target.

5. I quickly discard negative emotions that can hurt my trading results. When you lose, you want to learn from the experience, then put it behind you. You cannot afford to dwell on a loss once the trade is complete. You have to have total focus on the new moment and forget about the past, save for the time you allocate to evaluating past trades (which should be done outside market hours).

6. I am focused on the market during the trading day, and not easily distracted by non-market activities during trading hours. This can be a tough one for many traders who have many responsibilities.  If this is the case, define the time you will be focused on the market and make arrangements not to be interrupted.

The Artist and the Trader

  
  Education
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Art is for the Artist. Words must be written, Songs must be sung. Visions must be seen. Not because they are valued; but because they are Ideas. The Artist understands that wealth, true wealth as opposed to simply being rich, stems from Ideas. Great Art is valued, if valued properly, because they express an Idea well. Not always because they express a grand idea.

There is the modern myth that the Artist must not be materialist or wealthy. Whereas the Trader, as an Artist, knows that all Artists are wealthy, but all are not rich. It would seem that a great Trader and the Artist share a similar soul.

For they both :

Take a loss. The modern myth largely stems from the Artist producing their best Ideas to bounce back from a loss. They both believe they can replace their losses with better Ideas.

Respect everyone. An Idea can come from anyone. Every trader has been on the wrong side of a trade against someone of much more limited means, brains and circumstances.

Generous souls. For if wealth comes from Ideas, Ideas can always flow. An Artist never will admit he is out of Ideas. Many only have one grand idea, but die thinking the next grand idea is around the corner.

There is never enough. If Ideas are wealth, Life is to be lived to its fullest. The trader that gives up simply to be rich and preserve their riches has given up on their Ideas. Like the Artist that has sold out, simply producing copies of his once great work. Their admitting that it was either great timing or luck; not skill and belief that their Ideas still matter.

Free souls. Comes from the empowerment of wealth coming from your thoughts.

Drawn to excess. Because Ideas are regenerative, its tempting to believe everything is. Like the young that are blind to time. Or the athlete that believes there is always another game, tomorrow.

4 Quotes from Michael Marcus

  
  Education
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You have to learn how to lose; it is more important than learning how to win. If you think you are always going to be a winner, when you lose, you will develop feelings of hostility and end up blaming the market instead of trying to learn why you lost.

If trading is your life , it is a torturous kind of excitement. But if you are keeping your life in balance, then it is fun. All the successful traders I’ve seen that lasted in the business sooner or later got to that point. They have a balanced life; they have fun outside of trading. You can’t sustain it if you don’t have some other focus. Eventually, you wind up over trading or getting excessively disturbed about temporary failures.

I think the leading cause of financial disablement is the belief that you can rely on the experts to help you. It might, if you know the right expert….Typically, however, these so-called “experts” are not traders. Your average broker couldn’t be a trader in a million years. More money is lost listening to brokers than any other way. Trading requires an intense personal involvement. You have to do your own homework, and that is what I advise people to do.

Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay the losers.
You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weakness. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and bad in your own approach. When you try to incorporate someine else’s style, you often wind up with the worst of both styles. I’ve done that a lot.

How to Set Goals for Your Trading

  
  Education
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Do you have a written goal of what you expect to make from your trading this year? 

If you do, you’re among three in 100 who have any goal in writing. Writing out your goal allows your mind to define exactly what you want from your trading.  Once you define a dollar amount you will make for the year, you can break that goal down into what you need to make each month, each week and each day on average.  Your goals should not be just monetary.  Your goals sheet should also list other areas like improving your percentage of winning trades, widening the size of your winners or reducing the size of your losers.  Another good goal is reviewing your processes daily to stay sharp.  I’m sure you can think of other areas you’d like to improve.  Write one goal down NOW while you’re thinking about it!

Goals focus our attention and our energy to give our efforts a clear direction. Without a clear direction, your efforts will not be unified and your results will not be reaching anywhere near your true potential.  Setting goals gives the trader a feeling of control over what actions to take to accomplish a goal.  This allows traders to grow beyond past limiting beliefs or fears that had previously held them back.

One of the best acronyms I have seen is to set SMART goals – take the goal you wrote down earlier, and make sure it qualifies as SMART:

S – Specific – Goals must be specific, defining exactly what you want to achieve.

M – Measurable – You must be able to measure if your goal is being achieved, to give you the clear feedback you need to stay on track. 

A – Achievable – Goals should be ambitious but they should also be attainable.  You have to possess the belief that you can achieve the goal in order to

R – Relevant – Your goal must be personally important to you in order to increase the odds that you will be driven by the goal to accomplish it.

T – Timeline – You must have a deadline date to completion, which focuses you on the steps needed and time required in order to fulfill your objective.

Monitor goals daily and change your plan if you’re not getting the results you expected.  And once you achieve your goal, celebrate your accomplishment – and then set another goal!

Beliefs of Winning Traders

  
  Education
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winner1

Winners share certain behaviors and beliefs. Check to see if you possess the traits and beliefs of winning traders !!!

  1. If you have the belief that you will win, you increase your chances of trading to win. In order to have this level of conviction, you must have a thoroughly-tested plan. You also must have a clear vision of how you will proceed with your plan to reach your goal. The more detailed you can visualize your goals being achieved, the more you will strengthen your internal belief and confidence that you will reach your goals.
  2. I’m sure you’ve heard the saying “I didn’t plan to fail; I failed to plan.” Without a plan, your results will tend to be mixed and uninspiring. Commit to writing down your trading plan, and make sure you can answer the questions found in a recent TrendWatch on creating your trading plan. (more…)

Learning through Failure

  
  Education
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Very often we learn more from our failures than from our successes. The path to success travels inevitably through certain failures.

A look at successful traders and entrepreneurs shows that they have been able to survive failure as many times as they have had to. They use failure as feedback. They learn from it and make changes and go on. Many super traders have experienced crushing loss in their early trading years. All of them picked themselves up, made adjustments, and with the sure belief that they could make it back through better trading, did just that.

Successful traders are able to ride through periods of drawdown easily because they believe the drawdown to be only temporary. They distinguish the difference between simple losses and loss that comes from mistakes. Their confidence in their methods and their ability and their vision of what the markets can provide reassures them about their future success. Any period of loss is viewed as transitory.

Fear of failure keeps many traders from the success they so dearly want. They are afraid to fail and therefore either afraid to trade or to admit the failure and learn from it. I’m not saying you should like loss. Winning traders don’t want to punish themselves, but successful traders don’t dread loss either because they know that whatever happens, they can make it back. And they can learn.

Strangely enough, failure is often a necessary stepping stone to success. Those who are too fearful of failure may never get to the success they long for. Fear can lead us not only away from the thing we fear but also away from the thing we seek. Ironically, fear can also lead us directly into the thing we fear. My thesis is that underneath fear of failure is a sense of scarcity.

Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.

The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.

The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.

Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.

As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money. 

Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.

The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.

The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.

Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.

As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money.

Book Review: Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster

  
  Education
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I’ve recently enjoyed reading Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street’s Largest Hedge Fund Disaster, the story of how Amaranth blew up. It’s essentially a story of one man who was successful for a while and took on unbelievable amounts of risk trading natural gas futures while all of his supervisors, mostly the fund’s owner but some others as well lost all control or even desire for control. The book greatly details the actual trades and talks about many related personages, but it left me puzzled about how the trader who was mostly responsible for this disaster lasted this long. He had made a huge amount of money prior to blowing up, and even though he appeared to be quite intelligent the reasoning behind his trades are either inadequately or perhaps truthfully described as being close to random. He suddenly takes a liking to certain types of spreads and just bets on them evidently without much more than a seemingly unjustified belief that they will widen.

At some point he essentially became the market and and had to keep up the spreads by continuous buying until the fund blew up. The main trader and some others are portrayed as sociopathic degenerates driven by irrational beliefs as well as a strong desire to win at all costs. I would be interested to hear some energy trader’s or any commodity trader’s opinion about the book.

10 Obstacles to Success for Traders

  
  Education
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1        Greed, the urge to make as much money as possible, and fear that he will lose it all.

2        Low confidence in himself or his strategy, which makes him enter or exit trades at the wrong time. Low self esteem is also a problem; lots of people are natural victims and believe that they will probably fail, and of course this is what they do.

3        Middle class guilt that makes the trader believe that he should not make super profits because it is morally wrong.

4        Overconfidence. Feeling that after so many winning trades he is invincible.

5        Disbelief. He believes that high rewards cannot possibly be true, and “If trading is that easy, then everyone would be doing it.” He then looks for complicated strategies in the belief that it cannot be easy.

6        Paranoia, believing that the market is conspiring against him.

7        Reward for effort, where he feels that people should be rewarded fairly for the effort that they put in. FX trading does not operate with these rules and that is confusing. The reward can be disproportionately high or can result in punishing losses, and is not dependent on just the work put in.

8        Insecurity, resulting in changing a strategy that is actually winning. All strategies must be tested and then consistently applied in order to engender confidence.

9        The urge to trade simply because he is a trader. This impatience results in entering trades when no real opportunity exists.

10   Low expectation; people with a low expectation of life tend to be less successful. Even though they may be highly intelligent, they aim for less and settle for less. (more…)

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