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Goldman Sachs is worried about the prospects for ‘mega cap tech’ stocks – 3 big risks

  
  Analysis
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Via a Goldman Sachs analyst research note ICYMI (on Friday) covering huge technology shares like Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google).

GS nominate risk #1 as higher taxes, commenting on plans from the Biden administration for higher corporate and capital gains tax rates:
  • proposed corporate tax rate hiked to 28% (note that Biden has indicated a 25% compromise rate)
  • “FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time” … and thus a drop in these stocks will have an outsized impact on index values
#2 is the ‘higher interest rates’ usual suspect:
  • low rates have been a key support for valuations for over ten years now
  • the time of near zero rates could be approaching an end though
  • “All five FAAMG stocks …  are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates“
#3 is increased regulation … GS go as far as to say “Looking forward, the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies appears to be the potential intervention of regulators
  • … legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes”
GS do note on #3 though that Google has soared since the launch of the DOJ investigation (in October 2020 … price from circa $105 to circa $135).
Via a Goldman Sachs analyst research note ICYMI (on Friday) covering huge technology shares like Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google).

Major indices post 2 day winning streak. Amazon and Google beat on earnings. Bezos to step down from CEO role

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P post the best day to day performance since November

The major indices closed higher for the 2nd consecutive day with solid gains across the board ahead of earnings from Amazon and Google after the close.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +52.37 points or 1.39% at 3826.24
  • NASDAQ index up 209.38 points or 1.56% at 13612.77
  • Dow industrial average rose 476.23 points or 1.58% at 30688.14

After the close, both Google and Amazon have beaten on the top and bottom lines. Alphabet shares are currently trading up 4.21% to near $2000 a share.

Alphabet had
  • revenues of $56.90 billion vs. $53.13 billion estimate
  • earnings-per-share came in at $22.30 cents vs. $15.90 cents estimate
For Amazon, CEO basis said that he will transition to role of executive chair. Andy Jassy will become the new CEO of Amazon.  Jassy is a long time Amazon employee and built AWS.  The announcement is a surprise. Amazon’s basals is to focus on new products and early initiatives according to the headline news.
Amazon shares are currently trading higher by about 1.3% and volatile trading.
For Amazon:
  • Earnings-per-share came in at $14.09 vs. $7.34 estimate
  • net sales came in at $125.56 billion vs. 119.70 billion

US indices close lower but rebound into the close eases the pain

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ index leads the way to the downside

The major indices are closing lower on the day but did rebounded into the close which eased some of the downside pain.
  • Dow close that is lowest level since July 31
  • Amazon, Apple close over 5% lower. Apple closes 20% below its all-time high
  • Twitter plunged 21%
  • Facebook fell -6.3%
  • Major indices post the 2nd straight monthly declines
  • Dow has it’s worst month since March
  • NASDAQ closes nearly 10% below its all-time high
  • S&P closes just 1.21% from the 2019 close
  • S&P closes 9% from all time high
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -40.15 points or -1.21% at 3269.96
  • NASDAQ index fell -274 points or -2.45% at 10911.59
  • Dow industrial average fell 157.51 points or -0.59% at 26501.68
Looking at the ranges and changes for the major indices in North America and Europe, Portugal led the way to the upside. Other gainers were the France’s CAC, Spain’s Ibex, and Italy’s FTSE MIB. The NASDAQ index was the biggest loser for the day.
For the week,

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Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Alphabet all come in better than expectations

  
Analysis, US Market
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Amazon:
  • revenues $96.15 billion vs.$92.70 billion estimate
  • EPS $12.37 vs. $7.41 estimate
  • the caveat is AWS numbers came in about expectations and apparently there was favorable taxes
  • Amazon shares are trading down at $3163 after closing at $3211
Facebook
  • EPS $2.71 vs. $1.91 estimate
  • revenues $21.47 billion vs. 19.28 billion estimate
  • Facebook shares are trading down at $275 after closing at $280.83

Twitter

  • revenues 936 million vs. 777 million estimate
  • earnings-per-share $0.19 adjusted vs. $0.06 estimate
  • Twitter is trading down at $46.33 after closing at $52.43
Alphabet
  • revenues 46.17 billion vs. 42.90 billion estimate
  • earnings-per-share $16.40 vs. $11.29 estimate
  • Alphabet shares are trading up at $1638 after closing at $1556.88
Starbucks
  • earnings-per-share $0.51 vs. $0.31 estimate
  • revenues $6.2 billion worth of $6.06 billion estimate
  • Starbucks shares are trading up at $89.40 after closing at$88.30

Amazon’s Bezos sold $1.9 billion of his shares …. yours!

  
  Analysis
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Reuters with the report on stock sales by Amazon head and founder Jeff Bezos.

  • During the first two working days of August, Bezos sold over 600,000 shares
  • part of a previously announced trading plan
Bezos now only has 54.9 million shares left (roughly $176 billion). I know you’ll join me in sending thoughts and prayers. 😀
Reuters with the report on stock sales by Amazon head and founder Jeff Bezos.

Major indices close higher and at session highs. NASDAQ leads the way with Apple, Facebook, Amazon outperforming

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow, S&P, NASDAQ close higher for the 4th consecutive month

the month of July is over and all the major indices closed higher for the 4th consecutive month. The S&P index had its second-best July performance since 2010. Apple, Amazon, Facebook all of the way after their earnings release last night. Apple rose up 10.47%. Facebook rose 8.18% and Amazon rose by 3.7%.  Alphabet was left out despite posting better earnings. Their stock fell by -3.28%.

On the downside the Dow post its 2nd straight weekly decline.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 24.9 points or 0.77% at 3271.12
  • NASDAQ index up 157.46 points or 1.49% at 10745.23
  • Dow industrial average up 114.67 points or 0.44% at 26428.33
For the week, the NASDAQ led the way. The Dow industrial average could not make it to the unchanged level falling by -0.16%:
  • S&P index rose by 1.73%
  • NASDAQ rose by 3.69%, and as mentioned
  • Dow fell by -0.16%
For the month, the market initially tried to rotate out of the NASDAQ stocks and into the industrial/broader market, but the run up in tech stocks today and this week push the NASDAQ back into the lead:
  • S&P index rose by 5.51%.  As mentioned it was the 2nd largest July increase since 2010
  • NASDAQ index rose by 6.82%
  • Dow rose by 2.3%
For the year to date, the Nasdaq index continues to outperform, but the S&P index has moved back into the black (it dipped into the red earlier this week). The Dow remains lower on the year.
  • S&P index up 1.25%
  • Nasdaq up 19.76%
  • Dow down -7.39%

Apple reportedly delays launch event for new 5G iPhone

  
  Analysis
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This according to a New York Post article

the New York Post is out with an article saying that “Apple is reportedly delaying a fall launch event for its next batch of iPhones to the later half of October”.

Apple is now on track to releases 5G iPhone just-in-time for the holiday season. This according to Japanese Apple blog Mac Otakara.
Apple shares are down about $10.55 or 2.71% on the day to $378.50. It’s high price reached $399.81 few days ago – just short of the magical $400 a share.  Apple is expected to announce earnings on Thursday, July 30 after the close. That will be the same day that Amazon releases their earnings.
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NASDAQ index rises over 2.50% on the day. New record close

  
Analysis, US Market
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eBay #Sponsored Wallstreet Stock Market Bull and Bear Head Bookends Bronze ElectroplatedThe buyers return to Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla ahead of their earnings over the next 2 weeks

The NASDAQ index rose over 2.5% on the day, outpacing small gains in the S&P index and Dow industrial average (which barely closed above unchanged).
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 27.11 points or 0.84% to 3251.83. The high price reached 3258.61. The low extended to 3215.16
  • NASDAQ index closed up 263.90 points or 2.51% at 10767.09. That is a record high close for the NASDAQ index
  • Dow industrial average closed up 8.92 points or 0.03% at 26680.83. The high price reached 26765.02. The low extended to 26504.20
Leading the way were some of the years biggest gainers including:
  • Tesla, +9.47% to $1643
  • Amazon, +7.93%
  • Microsoft, +4.3%
Tesla Microsoft will announce their earnings on Wednesday, July 22. Amazon will announce earnings on Thursday, July 30.
After the close IBM has announced higher earnings on the top and bottom line
  • EPS comes in at $2.18 vs. $2.17 estimate
  • revenues came in at $18.12 billion vs. $17.72 billion estimate
IBM shares are up in after hours trading and trades at $130.25 up 3.88% on the day
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