The bond market continues to signal peak inflation. US 10-year yields are down another 4.7 bps today as we fall further below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern that I’ve highlighted a few times.

USD/JPY is once again the notable mover as we start the new week, with the pair down 0.5% to 132.50 levels at the moment. Other major currencies are little changed as we look to settle into the new month though there won’t be much time to rest on your laurels. Central bank bonanza will continue this week and we also have the US non-farm payrolls on the agenda on Friday.

The Fed stressed data dependence and the two big ones to watch will be the US jobs report and consumer inflation data before the next FOMC meeting on 22 September. We will be getting two of each before that and the first of those releases will come at the end of this week.

are slightly softer to start the day with US futures holding lower by roughly 0.4%. But that comes on the back of a big week with the Friday advance seeing the S&P 500 test waters back above its 100-day and 100-week moving averages. Meanwhile, the bond market is still a key spot to watch with 10-year Treasury yields toying with a potential technical breakdown:

Looking ahead, we will have some data points to move things along in Europe but it shouldn’t be anything too impactful.

0600 GMT – Germany June retail sales data
0715 GMT – Spain July manufacturing PMI
0745 GMT – Italy July manufacturing PMI
0750 GMT – France July final manufacturing PMI
0755 GMT – Germany July final manufacturing PMI
0800 GMT – Eurozone July final manufacturing PMI
0800 GMT – SNB total sight deposits w.e. 29 July
0830 GMT – UK July final manufacturing PMI
0900 GMT – Eurozone June unemployment rate

Data comes via CRIC, a Chinese real-estate data provider, released over the weekend.

• Sales at the country’s top 100 property developers fell 39.7% in July from the same period last year
• July sales were down 28.6% from June m/m

Info conveyed via the Wall Street Journal (gated):

• China’s home sales often experience a lull in July, because developers rush to book sales in June to meet first-half targets. But analysts said the main drag on activity this time has been the mortgage revolt and its impact on would-be buyers’ confidence
• The widespread mortgage revolt is over concerns that ailing property developers wouldn’t be able to deliver still-unfinished apartments

Catching up on this from last week, via Fitch Ratings analysts:

• China’s passenger vehicle (PV) market sharply recovered in June 2022, +42% y/y
• on the lifting of a strict, extended lockdown in Shanghai, strong consumer stimulus packages
• strong recovery is likely to continue into 3Q22

Fitch add that the severe slowdown in 2021 “due to severe microchip shortages”.

Plenty of war-mongering news over the weekend:

• China threats intensify. Will they really assassinate Nancy Pelosi?
• NATO says it is prepared to intervene in Kosovo tensions

This also from Russia over the weekend. Putin said on Sunday that the Russian navy would receive hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles within the next few months. Putin was cagey on deployment locations, saying the area of their deployment would depend on Russian interests.

Hypersonic weapons can travel at multiple times the speed of sound.