Bloomberg reporting that Moscow has for the first time ever used Egypt’s El Hamra oil terminal on its Mediterranean coast.

• 700k bbls of oil offloaded on July 24
• Another vessel collected a consignment from the port just a few hours later
• Experts say the highly unusual move makes the cargo’s ultimate destination much harder to track, adding to a trend whereby Russian oil shipments are becoming increasingly obscured since European and western buyers began to shun them following the nation’s invasion of Ukraine.

Link here for more info.

Banco Central do Brasil with the as-expected interest rate rise.

• Unanimous vote
• will evaluate the need for another hike of a smaller magnitude at the next meeting
• future policy steps could be adjusted to ensure inflation converges toward its target

At this point it’s obvious to everyone that the only way that Russia will increase pipeline flows is if it gets sanctions relief. The games around Nord Stream 1 continue and there’s no relief coming.

We saw two spikes in TTF gas prices last winter but those were both on cold weather and were ultimately short-lived events. This time, it’s not weather or a short-term disruption. Gas-burning season is still months away and prospects are darkening.

t this point, the story isn’t really ‘new’ to anyone but 2022 and 2023 bottom-up EPS forecasts for the MSCI Europe index have barely moved. That’s a sign that analysts (and perhaps investors?) are holding out hope that the taps will be turned back on.

Meanwhile, what’s staring right back at them are catastrophically high German power prices.

Keep in mind that German markets are some of the worst year-to-date performers (-29%) and the euro has been battered but economic models do a poor job of incorporating something so unusual as a 5x increase in power prices.

The euro this week looked like it might be entering a retracement phase early yesterday as it rose to a one-month high but by the end of the day it had reversed lower. That’s a bearish signal but it will take a break of 1.0097 to confirm it (the late-July low). That could come with the Fed pushing expected rate hikes higher or the ECB backing off on hawkish rhetoric.

10:30 am NY time (1430 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker

• speaks on “Using Fintech to Promote Financial Inclusion” before hybrid Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Sixth Annual Fintech Conference

11:45 am NY time (1545 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin

• speaks on “Winning the War on Inflation” before the Shanandoah Valley Partnership

14:30 pm NY time (1830 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari

• participates in fireside chat as part of the Journal of Financial Regulation Annual Conference

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OK, so of that lot it looks like Barkin will be the on to watch (listen to!). Earlier during the session we had Bullard speaking. He gave no indication of any slow down in the Fed’s fight on inflation:

Some encouraging news on semiconductor supply.

As part of US House Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan she will be meeting with the chair of Taiwan’s biggest semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)

Discussions are expected to centre on implementation of the recently passed (US) Chips and Science Act. The Act provides circa US$52 billion of federal subsidies for domestic chip factories. TMSC is building a chip factory in Arizona. Domestically produced semiconductor chips are seen as important to US national security. China is objecting to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and is also not too keen on US national security.

Info via (gated) Washington Post.