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WSJ: Iran, US close to reviving nuclear deal, but unclear Iran will accept the final deal

  
Analysis, Crude

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with this on the latest on the talks:

  • Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are close to completion, the European Union’s senior negotiator at the talks said Sunday evening, but it remained unclear whether Tehran will accept the final deal.
  • The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said the EU’s Enrique Mora, the coordinator of the talks. However, Iran must still decide whether to set aside its demand that the nuclear deal can only be revived if a multiyear United Nations atomic agency probe into its nuclear program is closed.

Oil traders are watching the negotiations. If agreement is cemented it’ll (eventually) mean more Iranian oil flowing back to global markets. Both the US and Iran would be in favour of this.

Stay tuned I guess.

Oil update:

oil 08 August 2022

Moody’s has cut Italy’s outlook to ‘negative’ (from ‘stable’)

  
Analysis, Politics

EUR traders will be keeping an eye on Italian politics ahead of the September 25 election.

Italian politics are volatile, an alliance formed late last week has been called off already:

ver the weekend (late Friday to be more accurate), Moody’s:

  • affirmed Italy’s sovereign rating at Baa3
  • cut Italy’s outlook to “negative” from “stable”

The agency citing:

  • “Risks to Italy’s credit profile have been accumulating more recently because of the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and domestic political developments, both of which could have material credit implications”
  • higher funding costs
  • increased risk that energy supply challenges would weaken economic prospects
  • sluggish growth may pressure Italy’s fiscal strength.
Italy euro is likely to hike it budget deficit target again

Weekend data – China’s exports in June beat estimates and grew at their fastest this year

  
Analysis, Economy
China July 2022 export and import dataChina’s economy continued to recover from lockdowns earlier in the year through July, the best growth in exports will be welcome. Less welcome of course is the miss on imports, this will be read as a sign that domestic demand in the country continues to lag. Consumers in China are wary of the imploding property sector being crushed by heavy loads of debt, a repayment strike from homebuyers not seeing promised homes delivered by developers, and widespread contagion. Government economic support is helping cushion the blows, but not entirely.
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