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EU sees Iran’s reply to nuclear deal as ‘constructive’

  
  Analysis

The latest draft of the JCPOA was framed by Europeans as a ‘take it or leave it’ offer but Iran seemed to reject that right away.

Their official reply hasn’t been seen yet but a report says the EU sees Iran’s reply as ‘constructive’.

Front-month oil prices haven’t moved much in oil.

oil

However there is some selling in longer-dated oil.

At issue are guaratees that Iran wants that the US won’t end the deal the second a new President is elected (presumably it’s Trump they’re worried about). The US says it can’t hold a future administration to the deal while Iran doesn’t want to give up its nuclear progress for as little as two years of sanctions-free trading.

They’re working on a compromise where foreign companies may not be sanctioned by the US for a specific period if/when the US leaves the deal. An FT report said the US has agreed to extend the time that companies must comply ‘significantly’ beyond the 90-180 days currently outlined.

Focus on Decisions, Not Outcomes –#AnirudhSethi

  
Analysis, Education

2,893,277 Focus Photos - Free & Royalty-Free Stock Photos from DreamstimeTraders who are successful are able to quickly correct their mistakes because they have a better understanding of the consequences of making decisions under uncertainty. They know that it’s not always necessary to take the trade that wasn’t meant to be in order to salvage something good from the situation.They know that sometimes good ideas don’t work out, since there is always some uncertainty involved. This makes it more likely that they will be wrong some of the time. Great traders always have a reason for putting a trade on, and they always have a reason for taking a trade off. The traders in the market focus on the reasons for their trades, rather than the short-term results of those trades.

Prepare To Be Wrong – #AnirudhSethi

  
Analysis, Education

Preparing to Be WrongIf you don’t know what the future will bring and choose a trade with a certain outcome, you might be wrong. In many cases, it’s more likely that you’ll lose money when trading. What really matters in the end is the total amount of money that is won or lost, not whether you are right more often than wrong. Great traders are comfortable making decisions even if they know they might be wrong.

EUR/USD losses expected to extend below parity – forecast to 0.95

  
Analysis, Forex

Scotia on prospects for the euro, not a pretty picture at all:

  • In Europe, the consequences of the Ukraine war remain a clear constraint on prospects.
  • European energy security remains a key consideration for the outlook over the next few months. It is not in Russia’s best interests to cut off Europe altogether from its natural gas supplies and Europe is doing a decent job of building gas reserves ahead of winter. But supply uncertainty is real and surging energy costs are lifting inflation and curbing discretionary spending and industrial output.
  • Recession risks are rising in the Eurozone and hot summer weather is adding to economic headwinds; low water levels are compromising key logistical routes on the Rhine (which transports around 30% of German energy raw materials).
  • The European Central Bank raised interest rates 50 bps in July but markets expect only modest rate increases over the balance of the year and yield differentials will curb the appeal of the euro (EUR) for now. N
  • egative growth surprises or energy supply disruption would risk pushing the EUR below parity versus the USD, we believe.
  • The unsettled Italian political backdrop, prompting Moody’s to downgrade Italy’s sovereign outlook, figures as another, nascent risk for the EUR.

Where to for EUR/USD? Scotia forecasts:

Major stock indices close higher on the day. Dow closes above 200 day MA

  
Analysis, US Market

The major stock indices are closing higher on the day with the Nasdaq leading the way.

  • The major indices are off to a positive start for the week after 4 straight weeks of gains
  • 9 or 11 sectors in the S&P moved higher with Energy (-1.9%) and materials (-0.1%) the only sectors to decline. Crude oil is down -$3.11 on the day. The consumer staples rose 1.0%
  • The Dow is closing above the 200 day MA for the first time since April 20. The 200 day MA comes in at 32897.15. The price closed at 33191.45
The Dow closed above the 200 day MA
  • Dow industrial average is closing up 151.39 points or 0.45% at 31912.45
  • S&P index is up 17.01 points or 0.40% at 4297.15
  • NASDAQ index is up 80.80 points or 0.62% at 13128.06
  • Russell 2000 is up 4.73 points or 0.23% at 2021.34
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