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Trading Fear: The Psychological Warfare of Trading –#AnirudhSethi

  
Analysis, Education

Trading isn’t easy, but the difficulty of it shouldn’t be underestimated. The markets are a psychological battleground, and successful traders are those who understand and use this to their advantage.
Whether you’re new to trading or an experienced investor, you will face challenges when playing the market. You need to be prepared for these difficulties and know how to navigate them in order to come out on top. After all, with so much influence from outside parties — from news headlines to your friends — the market is anything but straightforward.
If you want to succeed as a trader, you have to understand what makes others fail. To succeed as a trader requires fortitude, focus, and discipline that few can claim they have in abundance. It’s not just about knowing technical analysis or reading charts; it’s about understanding human psychology and using that knowledge against them when necessary.

Dow Jones/WSJ reports economists’ 63% probability on a US recession in the next 12 months

  
  Analysis

A survey of economists in the Wall Street Journal. The gist of the expectation of recession is that expectations are that continued Federal Reserve rate hikes will mean higher unemployment and a downturn in the economy. Summed up by:

  • “‘Soft landing’ will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass,” said Daniil Manaenkov, an economist at the University of Michigan.

From the report (gated):

  • 63% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 49% in July’s survey
  • GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter
  • nonfarm payrolls will decline by 34,000 a month on average in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter
us recession probability
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