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CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs increased. CAD longs increase
Weekly futures forex positioning data from the CFTC
- EUR long 109K vs 104K long last week. Longs increased by 5K
- GBP long 24K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 7K
- JPY short 47K vs 50K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
- CHF short 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- AUD short 2K vs 1K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- NZD long 6K vs 8K long last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- CAD long 49K vs 45K long last week. Longs increased by 4K
Highlights:
- EUR longs remain the biggest position and moved further away from the 100K level with a 5K increase
- CAD longs at 49K is the next largest long position
- JPY is the only meaningful short position at -47K
- GBP longs were trimmed as the pair approaches the midpoint of the trading range since 2014 near 1.4300.
US stocks end the week on a strong note
All major indices higher
All the major indices are closing the session with gains. The day was led by the NASDAQ index
- NASDAQ has its best day since May 20
- NASDAQ higher for the third straight week
- S&P has its best day since May 24
- Dow and S&P higher for the second straight week
A look at the closes shows:
- S&P index rose 37.04 points or 0.88% at 4229.89. The high price reached 4233.45. That was just short of its all-time high of 4238.04
- NASDAQ index rose 199.90 points or 1.47% at 13814.49. The high price reached 13826.82. The low extended to 13692.01
- Dow industrial average rose 179.35 points or 0.52% at 34756.39. The high price reached 34772.12. The low price extended to 34618.69
- Russell 2000 index closes up 7.16 points or +0.31% at 2286. It’s high price reached 2293.67. The low price extended to 2277.39
The biggest gain or of the Dow 30 was salesforce with a gain of 2.28%.
The biggest loser in the Dow 30 was Travelers at -0.63%.
Outside of the Dow 30, below is a list of some of the other bigger winners for the day. Roblox which recently IPO would near the $70 level, traded above $100 this week. Nvidia is cracking above the $700 level of the first time:
Losers today included the recent Meme gainers. Blackberry fell -12.78%. AMC fell -6.53% and Gamestop fell -3.89% .
For the trading week, the major indices all rose modestly:
- S&P rose 0.69%
- NASDAQ rose 0.57%
- Dow rose 0.85%
Thought For A Day
European indices end the day mostly higher (Spain’s Ibex the exception)
German DAX trade to a new all-time high today. France’s CAC traded to its highest level since 2000 this week
the European shares are ending the day mostly higher. The exception is the Spain’s Ibex which is down around -0.5%. For the week, the major indices are mostly higher again with Spain’s Ibex trading in the red. The German DAX traded to a new all-time high at 15705.89. France’s CAC traded to its highs level since 2000 at 6522.23 during yesterday’s trade. The high price today fell just short of that level at 6517.93.
The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, up 0.4%
- France’s CAC, up 0.1%
- UK’s FTSE 100, up 0.1%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.5%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.3%
For the trading week, the major indices moved higher with again the exception being the Spanish Ibex:
- German DAX, +1.1%
- France’s CAC, +0.5%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.7%
- Spain’s Ibex, -1.4%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.4%.
A look around the markets, as London/European traders look to exit shows:
- Spot gold, plus $21.85 or 1.17% at $1892.61. The hi has been able to stay below the $1900 are level at $1896.28.
- Spot silver is up $0.36 or 1.32% at $27.79. That is off the high price of $27.84 but above the low of $27.23.
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.41 at $69.22. It’s high price at $69.76 has remained below the key resistance at $70.
- Bitcoin is down $-1723 or -4.45% at $36,995. The high price reached $39,291.24. The low price extended to $35,593.23. Elon Musk tweeted that he was more or less breaking up with bitcoin (or out of love at least).
In the US stock market, the major indices are higher led by the NASDAQ index:
- S&P index up 28.4 points or 0.68% at 4221.
- NASDAQ index up 185 points or 1.36% at 13800.
- Dow industrial average up 98 points or 0.28% at 34675.54
In the US debt market, the yields are sharply lower with the 10 year leading the way at -6.1 basis points. The two – 10 year spread is down to 141.88 basis points which is well below the 147.05 closing level from yesterday’s trading.
G7 nears deal for at least 15% global minimum corporate tax
Deal near the finish line
This has been in the works for awhile but the devil will be in the details and it could take a long time to implement.
US dollar moves to new lows against all the major currencies. Some technical levels are being tested/broken
USD making new lows
The USD is making new lows cancel the major currencies. The GBPUSD is now up 90 pips on the day. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are also running to the upside (lower USD). The USDJPY is down -80 pips (lower dollar too).
EURUSD. The EURUSD has extended briefly above the 50% retracement 1.21786 to a new high of 1.2182. The 100 hour moving averages at 1.21905 and the 200 hour moving averages at 1.21995. They would be the next target on further upside momentum.
GBPUSD. THe GBPUSD is up testing the key 1.4200 level. Remember the high price yesterday peaked at 1.4203 but only briefly as traders lined up against the level. It would take a move above the 1.4200 level to give the pair a more bullish bias with 1.42193 as the next upside target (highs from May 18 and May 27).
USDJPY. The USDJPY is dipping below the 200 hour moving average now at 109.542. The low price just reached 109.48. The 100 hour moving averages at 109.74. Stay below the MAs keep sellers more control.
USDCHF. The USDCHF is also trading back below its 200 hour moving average at 0.8986. Earlier, the 100 hour moving average was broken at 0.89976. Like the USDJPY, stay below the moving averages and the sellers remain more control.
USDCAD: The USDCAD is stock right around its 100 and 200 hour moving averages both near 1.2075 as traders await the next shove. Crude oil is so far staying below the key $70 level. The high price reached $69.76. The current price trades at $69.50.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD as a just moved back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 0.7723. The 200 hour moving average comes in a 0.7732. The high price just reached 0.7741. PS the 100 day moving averages is also at 0.7724 – just above the 100 hour MA. That level is key support now. Stay below is more bullish.
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has moved back above its 100 day moving average at 0.7178 (now risk for longs). Stay above is more bullish. The high has just reached 72086 which is near the swing low from Wednesday’s trade and a swing low from yesterday before breaking to the downside. Get above that level and traders will be eyeing the 50% retracement of the move down since last week’s high at 0.72203. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 0.72235 and makes that area another key upside target.
The NASDAQ continues to push higher and is currently up 164 points or 1.21% at 13778.31. It’s high price did extend up to 13789.40.
The S&P index is up 26 points or 0.62% at 4218.89. The all-time high price for the S&P is up at 4238.04.
The Dow industrial average is up 94.81 points or 0.28% at 34673. That index is lagging as flows head into the more interest rate sensitive NASDAQ index.
The US 10 year yield is now down -5 basis points at 1.573%.
Gold prices are up $21 or 1.14% at $1892.17. That is just off it’s high price of $1892.30
Eurozone April retail sales -3.1% vs -1.5% m/m expected
Latest data released by Eurostat – 4 June 2021
- Prior +2.7%; revised to +3.3%
- Retail sales +23.9% vs +25.0% y/y expected
- Prior +12.0%; revised to +13.1%
Retail sales activity in the euro area moderated in April after supposed Easter sales boosted the March numbers, with non-food products declining by 4.7% while food, drinks, and tobacco declined by 1.9% on the month.
The outlook towards the summer remains hopeful so we’ll see how things go in the months ahead and if there will be more solid numbers to follow in Q3.
Russia’s Novak: Russia compliance with OPEC+ pact close to 100% in May
Novak says that Russia is playing ball when it comes to OPEC+ compliance
That is comforting but it could be some give before they try and push forward with the proposal to increase output further in the months ahead. As prices threaten to break higher, the urge to pump more is getting harder to resist for OPEC+.
WTI is trading back above $69 currently, as it keeps with the break above $68. There isn’t much resistance until the $70 level but we could just sail by that if the landscape in the oil market and inflation debate remains as it is at the moment.
