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What key releases and events will be released next week?

  
  Analysis

Fed speak, treasury supply, US CPI and PPI data

Now that the US jobs report is in the rearview mirror, what releases and events are of interest next week?

With the Fed back in play, hearing what members have to say will be of interest. In the US  CPI and PPI data, and treasury supply are also of interest.
Below are some of the key releases and events scheduled

Monday, August 9
  • Atlanta Fed member Bostic speaks, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • JOLTS job openings, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT, Est 9.27M vs 9.21M last month
  • Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin speaks, 12:00 PM ET/1600 GMT
Tuesday, August 10
  • NAB business confidence index, 9:30 PM ET/0130 GMT. Last 11
  • Euro ZEW economic sentiment, 5 AM ET/0900 GMT.  Estimate 55.3
  • German ZEW economic sentiment, 5 AM ET/0900 GMT.  Estimate 54.9
  • Chicago Fed president Evan speaks 2:30 PM ET
Wednesday, August 11
  • Westpac consumer sentiment, 8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. Last 1.5%
  • US CPI MoM, 8:30 AM/1230 GMT.  Estimate 0.5% versus 0.9% last month.  US core CPI 0.4% versus 0.9% last month
  • Feds Bostic speaks.  10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT
  • Kansas City Pres. George speaks, 12 PM ET/1600 GMT
  • 10 year note auction.  1 PM ET/1700 GMT
Thursday, August 12
  • UK preliminary GDP 2Q, 2:00 AM ET/0700 GMT, estimate 4.8% vs -1.6% 1Q
  • US PPI MoM, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT, estimate 0.6% versus 1.0% last month. Core PPI 0.5% versus 1.0% last month
  • US unemployment claims, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate 375K versus 385K last week
Friday, August 13:
  • Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment, estimate 81.2 versus 81.2 last month

S&P and Dow close at record highs. NASDAQ lags after strong jobs report.

  
Analysis, US Market

Yesterday the S&P and NASDAQ close record highs

The stronger-than-expected US jobs report Helped send the Dow 30 stocks higher in trading today. The S&P index was mixed but also close marginally higher. The NASDAQ index fell on the back of the potential for higher rates slowing down some of the high flyers.

Whereas yesterday, the S&P and NASDAQ closed at record levels. Today the Dow and S&P are closing at records. The Russell 2000 index also closed higher today.
A look at the final numbers shows:
  • Dow industrial average +144.39 points or 0.41% at 35208.64
  • S&P index up 7.44 points or 0.17% at 4436.54
  • NASDAQ index -59.35 points or -0.40% at 14835.76
  • Russell 2000 index rose 11.75 points or 0.53% at 2247.76
In some of the S&P sectors, the gains were led by:
  • Financials, +2.01%
  • Materials, +1.47%
  • Energy, +0.94%
  • Industrials, +0.41%
The losers today included:
  • Discretionary, -0.73%
  • Real estate, -0.25%
  • Technology, -0.12%
  • Healthcare, -0.10%
For the trading week, the major indices closed higher:
  • Dow, +0.69%
  • S&P index +0.84%
  • NASDAQ index +1.02%
  • Russell 2000+0.82%
For the year:
  • Dow is up 14.9%
  • S&P is up 18%
  • NASDAQ is up 15%
Some of the biggest winners today included:
  • Robinhood, +8.0%
  • Alcoa, +4.95%
  • Charles Schwab, +3.8%
  • Wells Fargo, +3.77%
  • Albemarle, +3.72%
  • Goldman Sachs, +3.52%
  • Bank of America, +2.9%
  • J.P. Morgan, +2.84%
  • Uber, +2.83%
Losers today included:
  • Novavax, -19.62%
  • Fireeye, -17.02%
  • Zoom, -3.4%
  • Nio, -3.82%
  • Roblox, -3.33%
  • Koss, -3.09%
  • Palantir, -3.09%
  • Chewy, -3.09%
  • Twitter, -2.73%
  • square -2.36%

July US non-farm payrolls 943K vs 870K estimate

  
  Analysis

Nonfarm payroll for July 2021

  • Prior was 850K revise 938K
  • nonfarm payroll 943K vs 870K estimate
  • unemployment rate 5.4% vs 5.7% estimate.  Prior unemployment rate came in at 5.9%
  • Participation rate
  • Underemployment rate vs 9.8% last month
  • Average hourly earnings MoM vs 0.3% estimate
  • Average hourly earnings YoY vs 3.9% estimate
  • Two month net revision
  • private payrolls 703K vs 700K est
  • goods producing
  • service producing
  • Government
  • part-time employment
  • Manufacturing jobs

For the full report CLICK HERE

————————————————————————————-
Ahead of the report:
  •  the Dow was near unchanged.
  • The Nasdaq futures implied a 21 point decline.
  • The S&P was up 1 point.
  • 10 year yield was at 1.251%.
  • Crude oil was up $0.50 at $69.61.
  • Gold was down -$7.00 at $1797.21.

US nonfarm payroll (NFP) report for July – what to expect

  
Analysis, Economy

The labor market report from the US is due at 1230 GMT on August 6.

Expected and priors for the main stats are as follows (exp first, prior is the second number)
  • Non-farm payrolls          8,70,000 8,50,000
  • Unemployment rate        5.7%      5.9%
  • Average earnings m/m    0.3%      0.3%
  • Average earnings y/y      3.8%      3.6%
  • Average workweek hours 34.7 hrs  34.7 hrs
And, no estimates for these, just the previous:

  • Labor force participation rate  61.6%
  • U6 underemployment  9.8%
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