Thought For A Day
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rssFederal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December minutes due Wednesday
Coming up later today from the US is a barrage of data and also, and of much focus, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December 13th – 14th meeting.
Due at 1900 GMT on Wednesday 04 January 2023.
- Inflation developments, Fed officials have been keen to point out further upside risk for CPI
- softening financial conditions prior to the meeting, does the FOMC need to push harder against these?
- terminal rate predictions in the future; Chair Powell said at his news confernce on the 14th that Powell had said in his press conference that he “can’t tell you confidently that we won’t raise our terminal rate estimate again in March”
Saudi Arabia may cut Arab Light crude prices to Asia – slow demand, more Russian supply
An interesting item from Reuters on Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Saudi Aramco maybe cutting the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia in February.
“The near-term market outlook is dim. More Russian barrels are expected to flow to Asia, but demand is not picking up,” said one respondent to the Reuters poll of analysts.
Reuters adds:
- The price cut comes as Russia diverts its oil from Europe to Asia, after the European Union banned seaborne crude oil imports from Dec. 5, alongside a price cap introduced by the Group of Seven (G7) nations that restricts Russian oil trade using Western financial, shipping and insurance services.
Here is the link to the piece for more.
Thought For A Day
“Everything In Life is a Trade”
Everything in life is a trade-off. Should I buy insurance for my house?
Should I invite my crazy aunt over for dinner?
Everything is an exchange.
This could involve the conventional trade of money but also of time, social credit, and personal utility.
Understanding the trade-offs in your personal day to day life is important.
It also provides a strong mindset to understand trading in the stock market.
EU offers free Covid-19 Vaccines to China
The Financial Times is gated, reporting moments ago that the “EU offers free Covid-19 vaccines to China to help curb outbreak”.
FT citing EU commission officials, speaking under the condition of anonymity
Natwest terminal rate forecasts: Federal Reserve 5% (by mid-2023) & ECB 2.25% (by Q1-2023)
Snippet via analysts at Natwest, thier overarching view is for major DM economies to enter into recession this year.
US CPI forecast down to 3.2% in 2023
- Eurozone inflation at 2.6% this year
- UK inflation at 4.3%
Fed Funds rate terminal at 5% by the middle of this year
- European Central Bank rates to 2.25% this quarter and then to persist there
“Sheer Will and Determination is no Substitute for Something that Actually Works.”
Sometimes we rely on hope and willpower while trading.
Yet a stock price doesn’t depend on your determination.
Trade what works. Be mechanical when you are right and wrong and leave the emotions out of trading.
“It’s Okay to be wrong; It’s Unforgivable to stay Wrong”
Traders will always lose.
Become accustomed to it.
Without being honest with yourself and admitting you were wrong you will never learn.
Those who stay spiteful and married to wrong ideas will only harm themselves in the long term.
In contrast individuals who make frequent mistakes but learn from them will be incredibly successful over time.
UK news – millions of low income households to receive 900GBP cost of living payment
The UK Department For Work And Pensions with the announcement that
- millions of low-income households to get new cost of living payments from Spring 2023
- £900 cost of living payment
- direct to bank accounts
- three payments over FY2023
There may be questions raised in financial markets about the impact on inflation of what is, in effect, a fiscal boost. But folks gotta eat and warm their homes.
