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The dip-buying in US stocks is relentless

  
Analysis, US Market

This chart is a gem

Here’s the 30 minute chart of the cash S&P 500 index. You can see the big drop at the open today, some choppy trading for the next hour and then utterly relentless buying.
It’s the kind of pattern we’ve seen play out so many times, though not always as picturesque as today’s chart.
SPX
The message for me is that the bulls are completely undaunted. Nothing matters so long as rates are ultra-low, the Fed is feasting on bonds and the fiscal taps are open.
One chart that’s more-concerning is the Russell 2000. It’s been moving sideways since January and is more-similar to the yen crosses and EM currencies, highlighting the uncertainty in markets.
Russell 2000

A new day, and new records for the Dow and S&P

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 close lower

It’s a new week.  It’s a new day. Ttrue to the pattern of late, the S&P and Dow both closed at new record levels while the NASDAQ index closed lower but off it’s lows.

the final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average rose 109.36 points or 0.31% at 35624.74
  • S&P index rose by 11.67 points or 0.26% at 4479.67
  • NASDAQ index felt -29.14 points or -0.20% at 14793.76
The S&P posted its 49th record close for the year.  The Dow posted its 35th record close for the year.

OPEC+ sees no need till release more oil

  
Analysis, Crude

Sources put damper on the US hopes that OPEC+ should release more oil

OPEC+ sources are saying that:
  • OPEC+ sees no need to release more oil into the market at present
The comments come despite urges from the US White House which last week encouraged OPEC/Saudi to increase production in order to prevent the slowing of the global economy (due to higher energy prices).
Crude oil has moved higher on the report and currently trades down $0.64 or -0.95% at $67.28. The low price earlier today reached $65.72. The high price reached $68.87 earlier in the day.

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Crude oil has rebounded

Euro Stoxx index falls for the first time in 11 trading sessions

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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European indices move lower today

The major European indices have closed lower today.

  • The Euro Stoxx index fell for the first time in 11 trading sessions (10 higher closes).
  • The German Dax came off of a record levels.
  • The France’s CAC could not reach its all-time high from 2000
A look at the provisional closes shows:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC, -0.9%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.0%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.83%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.85%
The Euro Stoxx index fell -0.7%.
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold plus $5.50 or 0.32% at $1784.85.
  • Spot silver is up for cents or 0.21% $23.75
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.35 or -0.49% at $67.60
  • bitcoin is trading down $773 at $46,248. The digital currency traded above $48,000 today
In the US stock market, the major indices are lower but off their lowest levels:
  • Dow is down -79 points or -0.22% at 35436
  • S&P index is down -16.29 points or -0.36% at 4451.53
  • NASDAQ is down 125 points -0.85% 14697.65
In the forex market, the CHF is now the strongest of the majors while the CAD remains the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CAD, AUD and NZD and declines vs the JPY and CHF. The greenback is near unchanged levels vs the EUR and GBP.

Economists see ECB laying out plans to wind down PEPP programs in Q4

  
Analysis, Economy

What’s the timeline for cutting pandemic emergency programs?

What's the timeline for cutting pandemic emergency programs?
The ECB is likely to announce plans to reduce pandemic PEPP bond purchases in Q4 according to a Reuters poll of economists. Most also see the program to be wrapped up by the end of Q1.
The eurozone rebound, rising vaccination rates and the framing of the ‘pandemic emergency purchase program’ make ending it a priority, especially for the more-hawkish ECB members.
There is talk of announcing a phase out as early as September but new variants could push out that timeline. 12 of 29 economists see a September announcement while others said Q4 (15), December (10) or H1 2022 (22).
On the actual start of tapering, 18 of 29 said before year end with 11 saying in 2022. Meanwhile, 29 of 34 forecast the program would be wrapped up by the end of March.
Growth expectations are 2.1% in Q3 and 1.2% in Q4. For 2021 it’s seen at 4.6% and steady at 4.4% in 2022.
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