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Germany October ZEW survey current conditions 21.6 vs 31.9 prior

Latest data released by ZEW – October 12

  • Outlook  22.3 vs 24 expected
  • Prior 26.5
ZEW

Going into the meeting the question is whether confidence would continue to wane in Germany. Supply chain issues, low gas storage, and surging energy costs are all difficult headwinds not just for Germany, but Europe as a whole.

A worse reading as those risks continue to weigh more stomgly on the eurozone. Supply chain bottlenecks blamed by ZEW and EURGBP seeing some weakness now.

Fed speakers coming up on Tuesday 12 October 2021 – Clarida, Bostic & Barkin

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on “Inflation”

  •  and participates in a moderated questionand-answer session before a virtual event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • 1230 ET US time, which is 1630 gmt
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida is expected to speak on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy before the virtual Institute of International Finance Annual Meeting.
I have seen two times listed for this and am not sure which one to go with.
  • 1115 US ET, which is 1515 GMT
  • or 1800 US ET, which is 2200 GMT
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin appears on Public Radio’s “Full Disclosure” podcast.
As for eco data due for them US tomorrow, Greg had this:
  • A look ahead to North American tomorrow’s data and events

JOLTS jobs data graph

ICYMI – European Union is to push for an end to the exploitation of Arctic gas, oil and coal

European Union plans talks with partners over a possible multilateral ban on the development and purchase of hydrocarbon reserves from the Arctic

The topic to be brought up at the UN climate summit next month.
  • EU member states import Arctic fossil fuels including an estimated 87% of liquefied natural gas produced in the Russian Arctic
More at that link above. Its the EU … concrete action (if it ever comes) is likely to be a long way away ….

3 reasons for the weakness of EUR from Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs notes the weakness of the euro and EUR/USD nudging year to date lows

  • is down 1.6% against the majors since early September
  • EUR/USD is just off fresh year-to-date lows
  • Over that period, the single currency has underperformed all of our models, where the fundamentals point to some deterioration but not to this degree
Offers up 3 reasons, none of which should come as much surprise, but a useful quick summary nonetheless:
we think this underperformance is likely a combination of 
  • lower real rate differentials (despite European nominals leading the charge higher, the change in policy expectations is not enough to offset the shift in inflation compensation), 

Platts on oil: OPEC is producing far below what it said it would

An overnight piece from Platts on OPEC.

Analysts at the firm note that many OPEC members did not hit their increased quota in September
  • the coalition is producing far below what it said it would
  • 19 members with production quotas under the OPEC+ supply accord were a combined 570,000 b/d below their allocations for the month, bringing compliance to 111.5%. 
  • The shortfalls have contributed to what many analysts say is a tight market.

Changing Your Self: Why Change Is So Difficult

imageMaking changes in life—and in trading—can be scary. Every change is a voyage from the more known to the less known.  The pull of habit and safety can become a weighty anchor, grounding us when we long to soar.

This morning, a wise trader suggested to me that people don’t fail to make changes because they lack motivation or because they have some need for self-sabotage. Rather, people long to make changes and still can’t sustain change because they have other, hidden commitments.

When you desire to change your trading or your lifestyle or your relationships but find yourself stuck re-reading old life chapters, it is because something in those chapters pulls you back. Disrupting your overt motivation to change is a hidden motivation that has been operating in the background all along.

The trader who cannot bring themselves to take more risk has a hidden commitment, perhaps for safety. Until that hidden commitment is actively engaged and addressed, it will work at cross-purposes with the desired goal.

How do you happily integrate hidden commitments with personal goals? The first step is to become aware of those commitments—and to recognize that they are there for a (usually good) reason. In the next posts in this series, we’ll examine the change process and how traders can bring their real selves closer to their ideals.

UBS on US jobs markets – nothing to stop the Fed from tapering

In brief:
employment report was a reminder of two key points in the pandemic data cycle: 
  • watch the revisions
  • and downplay seasonal adjustments
Data keeps being revised stronger, and nothing is seasonally normal this year. 
 
The conclusion of the overall employment situation is that there is nothing to stop the Federal Reserve from scaling back its bond purchases
Bolding is mine.
Noting this from UBS analysts on last Friday's US Nonfarm payroll data.
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