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Key economic releases and events for the week starting November 1

  
  Analysis

It is the first week of the new month which means purchasing managers data along with the US and Canada jobs report are on tap

The month of October has come and gone, and with it the major economic releases for the new month restart their cycle. Traditionally, PMI data kicks off the key releases for the month. Then on Friday, US and Canada jobs reports will end the week.

Unlike last week when there was also the earnings calendar, the majority of the major earnings have already been announced. As a result, traders will not need to deal with that dynamic. The US stocks today are wrapping up the best October since 2015.  Overall earnings were more favorable although Amazon and Apple did come out much weaker than expectations after the close yesterday.
So what key events will drive the market next week?
Monday (bank holiday in Italy, France)
  • Japan final manufacturing PMI, 0030 GMT. Estimate 53 versus 53 preliminary
  • German retail sales 3 AM ET/0700 GMT. Estimate 0.5% versus 1.1% last month
  • Swiss manufacturing PMI, 4:30 AM ET/0830 GMT. Estimate 65.9 versus 68.1 last month
  • UK final manufacturing PMI, 5:30 AM ET/0930 GMT. Estimate 57.7 versus 57.7 pulmonary
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 60.4 versus 61.1 last month
  • Canada manufacturing PMI, 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT. Last month 57.0
Tuesday
  • RBA rate decision 11:30 PM ET/0330 GMT.  No change expected
  • Swiss retail sales 3:30 AM ET/0730 GMT.  Estimate 1.4% versus 0.5%
  • Swiss CPI, 3:30 AM ET/0730 GMT.  Estimate 0.2% versus 0.0% last month
  • German final manufacturing PMI. 4:55 AM ET/0855 GMT. 50.2 versus 50.2 preliminary
  • EU final manufacturing PMI 5 AM ET/0900 GMT. 58.5 versus 50.5 preliminary
Wednesday (Japan bank holiday)
  • New Zealand employment change quarter on quarter. 5:45 PM ET/0945 GMT Esme 0.4% versus 1.0%.  Unemployment rate 3.9% versus 4.0%.  Labor costs index 0.8% versus 0.9% last quarter
  • EU unemployment rate 6 AM ET/1000 GMT.  7.4% versus 7.5% last month
  • ADP nonfarm payroll employment estimate. 8:15 AM ET/1215 GMT.  Estimate 400 K versus 568K last month
  • US ISM services PMI.  10 AM ET/1400 GMT. 61.9 versus 61.9 preliminary
  • US factory orders. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.  -0.2% versus 1.2% last month
  • FOMC rate decision.  2 PM ET/1600 GMT. No change expected. The market will be looking for the Fed to start the taper.   Press conference at 2:30 PM ET/1630 GMT
Thursday
  • Australia retail sales.  8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT.  Estimate 1.3% versus 1.3% last
  • Australia trade balance.  8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. Estimate 12.22 billion versus 15.08 billion last month
  • OPEC meeting. All day
  • BOE rate decision and monetary policy report.  8 AM ET/1200 GMT.
  • US jobless claims. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. 285K versus 281K last week
Friday
  • US jobs report. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT: nonfarm payroll 397K versus 194K last month. Unemployment rate 4.7% versus 4.8%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.6%
  • Canada jobs report. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Employment change 157.1 K last month. Unemployment rate 6.9% last month

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NASDAQ index erases -125 point decline. S&P and NASDAQ close at record levels

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow industrial average closed at a record level as well taking out the October 26 high close

the major indices all closed at record levels to and the month of October.
  • S&P and NASDAQ post their best month since November 2020
  • Dow and S&P higher for the fourth straight week
  • All 11 S&P sectors higher for October
The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average closed up 89.06 points or 0.25% a 35819.57
  • S&P index up 8.98 points or 0.20% at 4605.39
  • NASDAQ index up 50.28 points or 0.33% 15498.40. The NASDAQ at the low was down -125 points or -0.81%.

The US stocks closed higher despite rough day for two major bellwethers Apple and Amazon. Both those stocks reported disappointing earnings after the close yesterday and open sharply lower. However, although they closed lower on the day, they did recover from the days lowest levels.

Apple fell -$2.76 points or -1.81% at $149.31. The low price reached $146.41
Amazon fell $-74.16 or -2.15% to $3372.44. The low price reached $3274.

For the week,
  • Dow industrial average rose 0.42%
  • S&P rose 1.32%
  • NASDAQ index rose 2.61%
For the month of October,
  • The Dow rose 5.86%
  • The S&P index rose 6.9%
  • The NASDAQ index rose 7.17%

The next big shoe to drop in the global bond market

  
  Analysis

Bund yields have been sub-zero since Q2 2019

Bund yields have been sub-zero since Q2 2019
The bond market is all over the place. The hawkish shift from central banks (aside from the ECB) is being met with dislocations and some nasty, whippy moves.
It’s month end so that might be feeding through but it’s tough to hear what the bond market is saying.
Technically though, there’s one spot that could set off waves of further dislocations. That’s the 10-year German bund. Today yields moved up 7 basis points and it’s now yielding -0.08%. That’s a hiccup away from a return to positive yield. It’s also threatening to break the high of the year, which could set off a cascading move.
Given the chop in FX and bonds, it’s tough to see how this all shakes out but you would think it leads to some euro inflows, if only among those who have to hold bunds and would be able to lock in a meager return.

Major European indices end the day mostly higher

  
  Analysis

France’s CAC +0.3%. German Dax down -0.1%

the major European indices end the day mostly higher. The exception is the German Dax which fell marginally. The Italian FTSE MIB is also a little lower.

The provisional closes are showing
  • German DAX, -0.1%
  • Francis CAC +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.35%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.05%
for the trading week,:
  • German DAX, +0.94%
  • France’s CAC +1.44%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 +0.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex +1.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.2%
For the month the major European indices also had solid gains:
  • German DAX, +2.81%
  • France’s CAC, +4.76%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.26%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +3.0%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +4.7%

Beijing to enact more virus prevention measures as China seeks to curb latest COVID-19 outbreak

  
  Analysis

Beijing is chasing zero cases ahead of the upcoming Winter Olympics

The latest flare-up in COVID-19 cases in China has seen more than 200 persons contract the virus since 10 days ago and that is prompting local authorities to take strict measures in preventing a further spread of infections across the country.
Three cities (Heihe, Lanzhou, and Ejin) have already been placed in lockdown this week as China sticks to its zero tolerance approach when dealing with the virus.
Amid the switch in focus to ‘common prosperity’, economic figures from China may not be as crucial as before but they are still important when assessing the global situation. As such, the virus trend and lockdown measures are key things to be mindful about.
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