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An Update : #GOLD #SILVER #PALLADIUM #Platinum -#AnirudhSethi
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rssThe Shiller PE Ratio (a measure of market overvaluation) just exceeded 40 for the first time since 1999 (during the Dot Com Bubble).
To be clear: no one knows where we go from here. But now is the time to ensure your portfolio is “all-weather,” not just “fair weather.”
Thought For A Day
S&P and NASDAQ close at record highs for the seventh straight day
NASDAQ up for the 10th consecutive trading day
The major indices jumped higher on the stronger jobs report. Despite the stronger report, US yields moved down as follow-through buying in debt instruments after the FOMC decision are helping the tone:- NASDAQ and S&P close at record levels for the seventh consecutive day
- Dow industrial average closes at a record as well after yesterday’s declines
- The Russell 2000 index also closed at a record level
- The NASDAQ index traded above the 16,000 level for the first time ever on its way to a new all-time high of 16053.39
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average rose 203.70 points or 0.56% at 36327.96
- S&P index is up 17.47 points or 0.37% at 4697.54
- NASDAQ index is up 31.29 points or 0.2% at 15971.60
- Russell 2000 index rose 34.65 points or 1.44% at 2437.09
For the trading week, the
- Dow rose 1,45%
- S&P rose 1.99%
- Nasdaq index rose 3.06%
- Russell 2000 rose 6.12%.
US yields are trading lower with the 30 year down -7.7 basis points.
Thought For A Day
European equity close: Italian shares surge to finish a strong week
European equity closing levels:
- UK FTSE 100: +0.4%
- German DAX: +0.1%
- French CAC: +0.6%
- Italy MIB: +0.9%
- Spain IBEX: +0.9%
Weekly changes:
- UK FTSE 100: +0.9%
- German DAX: +2.3%
- French CAC: +3.0%
- Italy MIB: 3.4%
- Spain IBEX: +0.7%
Biden still hasn’t made a decision on Fed chair but will soon
Powell and Brainard both spotted at White House yesterday
Earlier reports highlighted that Powell had been seen at the White House yesterday and that led some to conclude that he would be getting re-nominated. Now we learn that Brainard was also seen there so we have to wait and see.
The most likely scenario continues to be Powell renominated and Brainard gets promoted to the bank supervision head.
PredictIt has Powell well ahead:
US September non-farm payrolls +531K vs +425K expected
US non-farm payrolls employment data for October 2021
- Prior was +194K (+312K)
- Two month net revision +235K
- Unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 4.7%
- Participation rate 61.6% vs 61.7% expected (was 62.8% pre-pandemic)
- Prior participation rate 61.7%
- Underemployment rate 8.3% vs 8.5% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.4% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.9% y/y vs +4.8% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.7 vs 34.8 expected
- Change in private payrolls +604K vs +317K prior
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +60K vs +26K prior
- Long-term unemployed at 2.3m vs 2.7m prior
- The employment-population ratio, at 58.8% vs 58.7% prior (61% before pandemic)
This is a good report for everyone. There’s some strength here but not enough to shake the Fed from its ‘transitory’ narrative.
The leisure and hospitality sector added 164K jobs, which is a solid sign of recovery from the delta wave.
JP Morgan slashes China Q4 GDP forecast to 4.0% from 5.0% q/q previously
Another cut to China growth forecasts
JP Morgan cites the lingering impact of the power crunch and resurgence of COVID-19 clusters as the main reasons, adding to further cuts in China forecasts as of late here.
US non-farm payrolls in focus today
NFP to round things off in trading this week
Amid all the focus on central banks over the past few days, one can easily forget that we still have one of the bigger data points that the Fed and the market tends to look at.
With that in mind, we may not get much notable action until the key risk event comes by but just be wary of the dollar gains yesterday as that has put emphasis on a couple of key technical levels among dollar pairs.
I’ll highlight them in a separate post later but be mindful that dollar bulls could stretch gains if they start to take a run at key levels on the charts. That is something to watch for in the run up and after the non-farm payrolls release, if we do get an upbeat report.