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Japan Q3 preliminary GDP -0.8% q/q (expected -0.2%)

  
Analysis, Economy

Japanese third quarter growth data

Q3 GDP (preliminary):

  •  -0.8% q/q vs. expected -0.2% q/q, prior 0.5%
  •  -3.0% y/y vs. expected -0.8% y/y, prior 1.9%
  • GDP deflator (an inflation indication) -1.1% y/y. Falling 3 quarters in a row now.
  • Private consumption -1.1% q/q  vs expected at -0.5% and prior at +0.9%
  • Business spending (Capex) -3.8% q/q    vs. expected -0.8% and prior +2.2%

Exports -2.1% q/q, the first fall in 5 quarters

Graph does not include today’s data yet, but its back under the zero line for a contraction:
japan gdp q3 2021Comments from a Japanese data spokesman says declines in autos, household electronics consumption dragged down private demand. Auto, constructions, production were contributors to the capex decline.

Weekend – Japan’s next economic stimulus package to exceed 40 tln yen

  
  Analysis

Kyodo with the report over the weekend on what’s expected from PM Kishida’s new spending plan later this week:

  • will exceed 40 trillion yen
  • will be 100,000 yen handouts in cash and vouchers for children aged 18 or younger as well as aid for students facing financial difficulties
  • will also include financial aid of up to 2.5 m yen each businesses suffering from virus spread impacts
  • wage hikes of about 3% for child care and nursery school workers, as well as nurses
Kyoo citing “sources close to the matter said Friday”
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet is expected to approve the new package on November 19.

Putin said Belarus cutting Russian natural gas flows to Europe would harm relations

  
  Analysis

Late last week Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko threatened to retaliate against any new European Union sanctions against Minsk over a migrant standoff on the Belarus-EU border,

  • Tensions are rising at the Poland-Belarus border
Lukashenko suggested he could halt the transit of gas and other goods via Belarus

Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Belarus had not consulted him before raising the possibility of cutting Russian natural gas flows to Europe. Putin said doing so would risk harming ties between Minsk and its key ally Moscow.
Pretty strong words from Putin, he wants Russian gas flowing into Europe and EUR flowing into Russia …
Russia’s state gas monopoly, Gazprom owns the Yamal-Europe pipeline that transits Belarus:
yamal gas pipeline belarus

US Treas Sec Yellen says on inflation … “It really depends on the pandemic.”

  
  Analysis

Yellen on her outllok for the economy and inflation:

  • It really depends on the pandemic. The pandemic has been calling the shots for the economy and for inflation
  • And if we want to get inflation down, I think continuing to make progress against the pandemic is the most important thing we can do.
And, further:
  • And also, labor supply has been impacted by the pandemic. Labor force participation is down; it hasn’t recovered.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke on on CBS' "Face the Nation."
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