Financial Occultist

Rates open lower

The US bond market was closed for Thanksgiving but opened again just after midnight GMT and yields fell 3-6 basis points across the curve.

My suspicion is that this is all about worries about the new covid variant but whatever it is, and despite an extremely thin market, it’s dominating price action in everything.

In FX, USD/JPY has fallen 50 pips on the rate move:

At times, price action can create narrative and I think we’re going to be hearing much more above covid in the day ahead because some South African officials have sounded the alarm.

Too early to start thinking about 2022?

26-Nov-21 04:53 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

What do you see coming in 2022?

This is one of my favourite times of the year: When all the big firms come out with notes predicting what will happen next year.

They inevitably form a consensus about how the world will look and then in five weeks the market begins to do the total opposite.

So what’s the trade for next year and what’s the consensus right now? These latest covid variant headlines are certainly sending a shiver down my spine.

One more gem from this 1931 booklet that was published in Wyckoff’s ‘The Magazine Of Wall Street’

Latest data released by Destatis – 25 November 2021

GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
GDP (working day adjusted) +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim

Slight delay in the release by the source. The preliminary report can be found here.

Almost no change to the initial report with only the headline revised to being a touch softer but it reaffirms a slightly modest expansion, though weighed down by supply bottlenecks and rising cost pressures in general.

The outlook in Q4 and going into next year is even less optimistic as supply and capacity constraints are still part of the picture, with the worsening COVID-19 situation adding to headwinds for the German economy.

Eurostoxx futures +0.6% in early European trading

25-Nov-21 12:43 pm

Anirudh Sethi

Positive tones in early trades

German DAX futures +0.4%
UK FTSE futures +0.3%
Spanish IBEX futures +0.3%

This follows a mixed showing in Europe yesterday though US stocks ended the day in a more positive fashion and that mood is carrying over to today, despite lighter trading conditions anticipated in the day ahead.

There isn’t much for traders and investors to work with on the day so a calmer mood may see things keep quieter in general as well.

ICYMI – The US added 12 Chinese companies to its trade blacklist on Wednesday

25-Nov-21 10:16 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

The Biden administration cited national security and foreign policy concerns.

Via CNBC:

8 technology entities based in China were added to the list for their alleged role in assisting the Chinese military’s quantum computing efforts and acquiring or attempting “to acquire U.S. origin-items in support of military applications.”