rss

US December nonfarm payrolls report due Friday 07 January 2022 – preview

Goldman Sachs is looking for more than 400K:

  • We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 500k
  • We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%

Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, have a below consensus call:

  • We expect nonfarm payrolls increased by 260k in December with an uptick in participation
  • leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%
  • We expect average hourly earnings rose 0.3%M, lowering the year-over-year rate to 4.1%

Moderna CEO says people may need a 4th Covid shot

CNBC carries the report.

  • Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel on Thursday said the efficacy of boosters against Covid-19 will likely decline over time, and people may need a fourth shot in the fall of 2022 to increase their protection.

More at that link above.

Israel is already providing a fourth shot to at-risk people. This for way back in mid-December:

  • Immunization Committee in Israel votes for the provision of a fourth vaccine dose to at-risk groups

My daily coffee booster regime:

coffee cups

Yields keep higher, stocks more subdued on the session 10-year Treasury yields knocking on the door of 1.75%

Treasury yields are continuing to keep higher on the session, with 10-year yields up 3.4 bps to 1.735%. Meanwhile, 30-year yields are up almost 4 bps to 2.126% as the post-FOMC meeting minutes selloff holds.

The chart above remains a key one to watch as 10-year yields are close to testing resistance at 1.75% and its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 1.79%. That is yet another critical region before a potential surge towards the December 2019 highs around 1.97% and the 2.00% mark.

In the equities space, European indices are still largely more subdued. The majors are down by roughly 1% so that is keeping risk sentiment more on the defensive for the time being. Elsewhere, US futures are faring slightly better from earlier but tech remains a notable laggard. Dow futures are up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures flattish, while Nasdaq futures are down 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the dollar is keeping steadier for the most part alongside the yen though earlier gains have been trimmed somewhat. AUD/USD is down to 0.7170 but off earlier lows of 0.7145. USD/CAD is up 0.2% to 1.2772 but off earlier highs of 1.2810.

In the commodities space, gold is still pinned lower just below $1,800 while oil has seen an impressive turnaround to be up over 1% to just below $79 at the moment.

Looking ahead, US weekly jobless claims will be one to watch. Otherwise, expect the focus to stay on the risk mood and bond yields before we get to the NFP release tomorrow.

Dollar builds on hawkish Fed tone from yesterday

The hawkish Fed tone from yesterday is helping to pin down risk assets and the dollar is extending gains against the commodity currencies for the most part today. AUD/USD is down 0.9% to 0.7157 as price looks towards 0.7100 next:AUDUSD D1 06-01

Meanwhile, we’re also seeing EUR/USD fall to a low of 1.1285 on the day and GBP/USD falling further to 1.3505 after failing to breach resistance from the 100-day moving average and 61.8 retracement level:

Despite the dollar’s advance, we are actually seeing equities pare some of its earlier losses. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures are now flat, but it is a bit early to call for dip buyers to prevail.

I still reckon we could see risk trades keep more pressured, especially if bond yields threaten to push higher. For now, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.2 bps to 1.725% but facing resistance at 1.75% to 1.79% as outlined here.

Either way, it is tough to bet against the dollar so long as the Fed continues to play ball and risk trades are looking vulnerable. If anything else, the move so far this week could have more legs if the US non-farm payrolls release tomorrow vindicates the Fed in going with a quicker balance sheet runoff.

More on the North Korean missile launch – a test-firing of a “hypersonic” missile

  • North Korea said Thursday that it has conducted a test-firing of what it called a “hypersonic” missile
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not attend the firing.
  • The North conducted the first test-firing of the “hypersonic” missile Hwasong-8 in September last year, though the South Korean military have said it appeared to be at an early stage of development.

See the link to Yonhap above for more

North Korea's Kim Jong Un
Go to top