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Risk And Reward

  • Risk and reward are not necessarily correlated.  After all, if riskier assets could always be counted on to generate higher returns, then they wouldn’t be riskier.  Therefore, volatility can’t be “risk.” This is why so many academic models of the financial markets end up leading us astray. Instead, Marks says that risk means there is a high probability of more uncertain outcomes. You might have seen the chart below from Marks depicting this concept that basically shows that the distribution of uncertain outcomes increases as you take more risk.  This is a vast improvement on the idea of the efficient frontier that simply implies that more risk will generate more return, which often leads people to think that they’ll do better simply by owning stocks “for the long run” or something like that.

cotd howard marks risk rewardOaktree Capital

 Marks notes that making predictions is incredibly difficult. Instead, it’s better to focus on ways in which we can improve our probabilities of good outcomes. Many times in the financial markets we’re better off knowing what we don’t know.

  • We’re all going to be wrong a significant amount. One of the keys is ensuring that we don’t make significant mistakes.
  • You have to learn second-level thinking, which involves thinking differently and better.

Patience in Trading

The most important lesson I’ve learned over the years of trading is staying patient throughout the journey. There will always be loosing trades as well as winning trades, the key is not being greedy as well as staying consistently patient with the market whilst gaining experience.

Re-reading books, trading scripts as well as regularly topping up knowledge of all the relevant price action technicalities is crucial, although I’d say the main attribute to achieving consistent results is not only sticking to your own specific trading plan and rules, but remaining patient and never giving up. The use of repeated trading affirmations can help dramatically with this.

In the world of trading, those who remain patient over the years and ‘slowly but surely’ carve out a positive equity curve will surely gain the vital skills needed to make trading a full time, long term career.

Most traders have only the ‘destination’ in mind, with the ‘journey’ aspect as secondary. This is the wrong approach. Without the long journey testing your patience, including all the difficulties and hurdles, the destination would be too easy to obtain and everyone would be doing it. This is why learning to trade can be seen as easy, however its the journey that most amateur traders find too difficult to sustain. This can all be overcome with the right trading mindset and understanding.

:Anything that comes quick goes quick. Patience is required for outstanding results.

Seven surprising things you may not know about Warren Buffett

Here are seven interesting things I learned about Warren Buffett from The Snowball, and some ideas on how they can help your investing:

1. Buffett set goals young. (He really started, really young)

Buffet began obsessing over numbers as a child. He raced marbles with a stopwatch and calculated the lifespan of hymn composers when six-years old. He sold chewing gum at seven and Coca Cola when he was eight: the same year he began wearing a money-changer on his belt.

  • His dad was a stockbroker. This gave him an early view of the markets
  • At ten he was chalking stock prices at a local broker’s office
  • The same year he visited the New York Stock Exchange, and was asked for a tip by senior Goldman Sachs partner Sidney Weinberg – an experience he never forgot
  • His favourite childhood book was One Thousand Ways to Make $1,000
  • At 11 he announced he was going to be a millionaire at 35, a seemingly crazy goal in 1941 (when a million really was a million)
  • He filed his first tax return aged 14, having already made $1,000 (equivalent to around $12,500 in today’s money)

The takeaway: The power of compound interest takes years to work its magic. None of us has a time machine, so the main lesson is not to delay a day when investing for the future.

2. Buffett bought his first stock when he was 12-years old

Warren put everything his schemes had earned him into a stock, Cities Service Preferred, when he was 12. He also enrolled his sister, Doris.

Buffet was already learning how to hold shares through a slump

He paid $114.75 dollars for three shares, and watched the stock price fall from $38.25 to $27 a share. His sister Doris was not happy. When Cities Service went back up to $40, he sold. He made $5 a share profit, and got Doris off his back. After he sold, the stock rose to $202 a share.

Takeaway: We all learn the same lessons. Buffett’s business partner Charlie Munger says that because Warren started thinking about odds, stocks, and goals before he was a teenager, he’s years ahead of the rest of us.

I used to watch share prices rise and fall on the Teletext TV service when I was 11 or 12. At the same age Buffett was learning real-world lessons on holding shares through a slump and selling too soon.

You’ll only discover whether you have the stomach to invest through a bear market or whether you’ll be sucked up by the next property bubble by being an active investor. Start with small sums, sure, but don’t delay that start.

3. Buffet lied, shoplifted, and played truant as a kid

This one was a real surprise. As a teenager Buffett revealed a wild streak. He says:

“We’d steal stuff for which we had no use. We’d steal golf bags and golf clubs. I walked out of the lower level where the sporting goods were, up the stairway to the street, carrying a golf bag and golf clubs, and the club was stolen and so were the bags. I stole hundreds of golf balls.

“I made up this crazy story for my parents – I told them I had this friend, and his father had died. He kept finding more of these golf balls that his father had bought. Who knows what my parents talked about at night.”

Takeaway: Even Buffett had to learn to be Buffett. I don’t know about you, but I found this heartening to read. Together with discovering that Buffett was a shy child who enrolled himself in Dale Carnegie’s public speaking course, it made him seem more human.

It’s easy to feel you haven’t got what it takes to make money. Some are born special, you might conclude. But Buffett’s history shows that even the world’s richest and most admired investor had to iron out his kinks.

Buffett’s history also makes me proud to be an outsider. Many of my college classmates entered the city or became management consultants, and have earned six-figure salaries for a decade. When property prices were booming, I’d sometimes wonder if I’d made the wrong decision by deciding to go it alone – even though I know that working a nine-to-five in an office and answering to some buffoon of a manager would kill me.

Discovering Buffett made being his own boss a top priority puts me in good company. I also suspect the unusual structure of Berkshire Hathaway grew out of Buffett’s non-confirming mentality.

4. Buffett is a businessman first, investor second (more…)

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