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Hope, Fear and Greed

hopegreedfearThe spectator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

Dalton, Jones, & Dalton, Mind Over Markets

Mind Over Markets, the book that popularized (and expanded on) Peter Steidlmayer’s Market Profile, was first published in 1990. Anyone who bought the book expecting a self-help manual would have been sorely disappointed because what they got instead was a pretty complicated alphabetic model for organizing the distribution of market data along price and time axes. Twenty-three years later James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, and Robert B. Dalton are back with an updated edition of their text, Mind Over Markets: Power Trading with Market Generated Information (Wiley, 2013).

The book itself is organized according to the Market Profile trader’s achievement level—novice, advanced beginner, competent, proficient, and expert—with the greatest time spent on the competent level. The expert trader gets a mere two pages. (more…)

Trading Advice

Don’t apply logic to the stock market
So often I see people make decisions in the market on what makes sense to them. It makes sense to buy stocks when the company insiders are buying. It makes sense to buy stocks that are making positive announcements. It makes sense to listen to what the President has to say about the company’s prospects. However, all that matters is what the market thinks of the company and whether the buyers are more motivated than the sellers. So often, the market does things that do not make any sense until we later learn of what motivated the market to do what it did. Remember, the market is forward looking, most times, what makes sense is judged on what has happened in the past.

Never average down on a losing position
Buying more of a bad thing is not much different than continually betting on a losing horse. Winners win for a reason, and until your stock starts to show that it is a winner, don’t add more to a bad situation. If you like a company whose stock is losing you money, sell it. You can always buy it back later when the market starts to like it again.

Successful investing is not about being right, it is about making money
Most good traders are usually wrong. They will lose small amounts often and make big amounts occasionally. What matters is how much they make over a large number of trades. Don’t try to always be right, simply work to make money. (more…)

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