The tail risk to the forecasts involves whether or not Russian energy supply will continue for Germany. If the supplies were to be cut, 2022 GDP growth is seen at 1.9% followed by a contraction of 2.2% in 2023.
I would argue that there is also a bit of ‘fantasy’ in thinking that rate hikes will do a whole lot to rein in price pressures in general. I made my case here already. But this is more of a credibility issue for the Fed perhaps, especially in trying to anchor inflation expectations.
I reckon a 50 bps move in May is all but certain at this stage. We’ll just have to see if they have the appetite to stick with a more aggressive path in the following months.
Russia’s energy minister tells Izvestia newspaper that Moscow is ready to sell oil and oil products to friendly countries ‘in any price range’
Biden was speaking about high prices, specifically gasoline prices.
I’m not sure what the implications of calling Putin’s war crimes genocide will be. It may be indicative of hardening resolve within the US administration. Whether that amounts to harder action is also a question.
The three major US stock indices are closing lower on the day after giving up a solid gains. The NASDAQ index was up over 2% at its highs. The S&P index was up 1.34%. The NASDAQ and S&P are closing lower for the third consecutive day
The small-cap Russell 2000 index did eek out a small gain on the day.
It’s another negative day but there was a nice turnaround after a dismal open.
The major US indices all closed lower as worries about higher rates, higher inflation, slower global growth, recession, you name it.
The final numbers are showing:
