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Nikkei 225 closes 0.47% higher at 21,125.09

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index climbs in mixed Asian trading

Nikkei 11-03

Japanese stocks were mostly more buoyant despite mixed tones in Asian equities today, as the major benchmarks in the region rose while smaller indices posted declines. The Nikkei is mainly taking a cue from better Chinese stocks – Hang Seng in particular is boosted by tech and insurance stocks, helping sentiment.

There isn’t much else to gather from the mixed tones in Asia as risk sentiment remains rather tepid. US equity futures are trading flat on the day so far and the late recovery in Friday trade should see European equities open around flat to mildly higher levels, given the backdrop of a more positive session for Chinese stocks.

ECB’s Coeure: Italy is only Eurozone country in technical recession

  
Analysis, Economy

He’s not technically wrong, though

  • There is a lack of progress in the Italian jobs market
  • Italy must be part of Europe debate
  • ECB still sees consistent growth in the region but less strong
While Italy is suffering from economic isolation, the tough part is that it is also being singled out politically ahead of the European parliamentary elections in May. And Coeure’s comments here is just further proof of that.
EU recession
With regards to economic performance, while Italy is the standout in terms of how poor the economy is faring, it’s not to say that others are in a beaming state either. So, that’s something to be wary about and could come back and bite Coeure in the back side later.

Fed’s Powell: Patience means FOMC is in no hurry to change rates

  
  Analysis

Powell on 60 Minutes

Powell on 60 Minutes
  • Policy rate now “roughly neutral”
  • Powell says he doesn’t believe Trump has the power to fire him
  • Says plans to serve his 4 year term
  • China, Brexit and Europe are risks to US economy
  • Still feels there will be materially positive growth in EU
  • Main risks to US are from abroad
  • We think the US outlook is a positive one
  • Repeats that economy is in a good place
  • Says watching retail sales after a weak December but that there is some evidence of a rebound in January
  • Notes Chinese steps to support growth
  • Financial conditions ‘generally healthy’
  • Stock market valuations mostly at ‘normal’ long-term levels
  • Large number of auto loan defaults is a product of the fact that the number of auto loans is much higher
Looking at rates, there isn’t much to change the outlook here for an extended pause. There is a definite and growing belief at the Fed that the US is a lone strong economy but the inference is that US growth alone wont’ be enough to spark rate hikes.

Crucial Update :Dollar Index ,Euro ,Yen ,Sterling ,INR ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO ,SPX 500 ,Nasdaq Composite ,FAANG Stocks -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude
The dollar rose against nearly all the currencies last week.  Among the majors, the chief exception was the Japanese yen, which seemed to benefit from the equity weakness and the drop in yields, perhaps not really so much of the widely touted safe haven attribute, but the unwinding of funding positions.  The main exception among emerging market currencies was the Indian rupee, which moved into the upper end of its three-month trading range as tensions with Pakistan appeared to ease, and foreign interest in Indian equities continued.
The disappointing US jobs growth saw the greenback’s gains pared ahead of the weekend.  Does the loss of momentum signal a correction is at hand? Will the anticipation of a dovish hold by the Federal Reserve on March 20 dissuade short-term participants from aggressively chasing the dollar higher from here?  Here is how we see the near-term technical condition.
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