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The strongest and weakest currencies this week are…..???

The GBP runs away with the strongest. The JPY and USD are the weakest

As the week comes to a close, it’s time to rank the strongest and weakest currencies.
The run away strongest was the GBP. That currency benefitted from the squeeze into all the votes, the blocking of the no-deal and I guess the hoped for extension of Article 50. What is still up in the air is if PM May can get the votes for her deal or if she can present another deal that the EU27 will agree to.  There may be the question of whether the EU27 will agree to an extension. Government officials met with the DUP leaders today and made “progress” with them (for votes).  Talks will continue over the weekend and early next week).
The weakest currency was the JPY and the USD. The JPY was hurt of flights out the safety of the JPY as global stocks moved nicely higher. The US saw most of the declines vs the GBP and EUR (a Brexit deal would help both presumingly).

European stocks end the week with solid gains

All major indices are higher

I must be out of synch because of the time change this week, but not to be forgotten, the European shares have ended the week with solid gains.
  • German Dax, +0.85%
  • France’s CAC rose 1.04%
  • UK FTSE, +0.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex +1.44%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%
  • Portugals PSI20 bucked the trend by falling -0.60%
For the week:
  • German Dax, +1.99%
  • France’s CAC +3.33%
  • UK FTSE +1.74%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +2.33%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.74%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20 rose 1.14%

US stocks, dollar post biggest weekly moves since late 2018

US stocks cemented their biggest weekly gain in more than three months and Treasuries rallied following a patch of soft economic data, all against a backdrop of hopes of progress in US-China trade negotiations.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 resumed its rally, up 0.5 per cent, after a slip on Thursday interrupted a three-day winning streak. The benchmark was up 2.9 per cent this week, its biggest weekly advance since late November.

The S&P has registered a weekly decline just twice this year, as trade optimism and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to be patient on rate rises have lifted sentiment on Wall Street.

“Next week’s FOMC meeting and a potentially pending resolution to trade frictions between the U.S. and China are likely the macro drivers to watch going forward,” Anthony Saglimbene, global market strategist at Ameriprise, wrote to clients.

US Treasuries also rallied on Friday, dragging yields lower, following a batch of soft economic data, including industrial production that missed expectations and a gauge of manufacturing activity in New York falling to a 22-month low. Yields on the 2- and 10-year Treasury hit their lowest since early January.

Partly hobbled by a resurgent British pound, the US dollar shed about ¾ of 1 per cent this week for its biggest weekly drop since the first week of December.

Chinese state media on Friday reported “substantive progress” on trade talks and Beijing passed a new foreign investment law designed to smooth the way to a new trade deal with the US.

The CSI 300 index tracking Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks closed up 1.3 per cent.

There were solid moves in Europe. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 gained 0.9 per cent, gathering pace as the session developed and reaching its highest level since October. London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.6 per cent.

North Korea is considering suspending nuclear talks with United States

The headlines helping the yen to gain

  • North Korea is considering suspending nuclear talks with United States

Tass citing Nth Korean deputy foreign minister

And:

  • North Korea has no intention to yield to united states’ demands
  • North Korean leader Kim set to make official announcement on his position regarding talks with united states
Note also that the Unification Ministry earlier noted that the North Korean head of the Kaesong inter-Korean liaison office had not attended inter-Korean weekly Friday meetings since February 22nd.
USD/JPY had been falling after the ‘as expected’ BOJ announcement (even leading into it … ps. moves are small only) – this given the yen a further little boost.

BOJ announce no change to monetary policy, as expected

Bank of Japan March 14 and 15 policy meeting Statement issued now

  • maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1 pct
  • maintains 10-year JGB yield target around zero pct
  • BOJ decision on yield curve control made by 7-2 vote, board members Harada, Kataoka dissent
  • BOJ leaves unchanged pledge to buy JGBin flexible manner so its holdings increase at annual pace of around 80 trln yen

BOJ cuts assessment on exports, output

  • tweaks assessment on Japan’s economy
  • Says Japan’s economy expanding moderately but exports, output affected by overseas slowdown
  • says overseas economies growing moderately but slowdown observed
  • says exports showing some weakness recently
  • says output showing some weakness but rising moderately as a trend
  • says Japan economy likely to continue expanding moderately despite impact of overseas slowdown
  • Says exports likely to remain weak for some time but remain on moderate rising trend

This decision and the surrounding downgrades were all expected by the market.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts – SG also raise their forecasts

Via Société Générale now, ICE Brent forecast USD 70 in Q3
  • to trade 62-75 range over next 12 months
  • average 67.50 in 2019
Nymex WTI
  • 64 USD in Q3
  • $55-$69 range over next 12 months
  • $60 average in 2019
Citing:
  • Iran, Venezuela the biggest upside risks to oil market outlook
  • Saudi Arabia unlikely to proactively increase output to make up for supply disruptions
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