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Tech stocks lead Wall Street rally after Fed’s dovish turn

US stocks rose sharply on a boost from the technology sector, while sovereign debt and the US dollar also rallied as investors digested a dovish shift at the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 was 1.1 per cent higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.8 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4 per cent.

The broad rally came one day after the Fed signalled no rate rises this year, bringing its projections more in line with market expectations. Policymakers raised rates four times last year and forecast two additional rate rises for 2019 as recently as December.

The central bank also said it will slow the monthly reduction of its Treasury holdings starting from May with a cut from $30bn to $15bn, and will cease trimming its balance sheet in September — prompting economists at Bank of America to note the Fed has completed its 180-degree turn.

Financials were the lone sector in the red, while technology shares advanced 2.5 per cent on the day. The real estate and consumer discretionary sectors also fuelled the market’s lurch higher.

US government debt remained in demand, pushing yields lower early in the session, after a rally around the Fed announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was mostly unchanged at 2.5369 per cent, after earlier touching a fresh 15-month low.

Investors also moved into eurozone debt, pushing the 10-year German Bund yield back towards zero, down 3.5 bps to 0.047 per cent.

London’s FTSE 100 outperformed wider European equities benchmarks with a rise of 0.9 per cent, helped by sustained pressure on the pound — down a further 0.7 per cent to $1.3101 — as investors tracked the UK’s fraught domestic politics.

With the Brexit deadline looming and no clarity on any extension to it, investors moved into the relative safety of UK government debt and at a faster pace than the rally for its eurozone neighbours. The yield on 10-year gilts fell as low as 1.052 per cent, touching its lowest level since September 2017.

Oil traders are now watching mobile phone traffic at refineries

Bloomberg looks at how far oil traders will take it

During hurricane season last year, oil traders were renting boats and counting the tankers arriving and departing Houston. For years, they have been using satellite technology to estimate stockpiles.
The latest scheme is using geolocation data from mobile apps to track worker traffic in refineries in an attempt to identify problems, accidents and maintenance.
“The ability to sharpen a view, or to really gain an edge, based not on anecdotal but more statistically significant signals, is extremely advantageous,” Tran said in an interview. “There is an information asymmetry in this market.”
It starts in oil but soon big data is going to overwhelm economic data in tracking trends in everything.

USD/JPY climbs as risk appetite improves

USD/JPY back to post-FOMC levels

USD/JPY is now flat on the day in a rebound to 110.75 from a low of 110.30. The rally puts it back to where it was immediately after the FOMC decision.
The bounce coincides with a better tone in equity markets. The S&P 500 is up 9 points after a 6 point loss at the open was erased.
USD/JPY back to post-FOMC levels
At the lows, USD/JPY was at the lowest since Feb 14 but the low hit some stops.

Biogen to halt late-stage trial of promising Alzheimer’s drug

US pharmaceuticals company Biogen and its Japanese partner Eisai have announced they will cease clinical trials for a promising Alzheimer’s disease treatment, sending shares in Biogen tumbling by a quarter.

Nasdaq-listed Biogen and Tokyo-listed Eisai said in a joint statement they decided to discontinue a global Phase 3 trial of a drug known as aducanumab after a “futility analysis” conducted by an independent data monitoring committee indicated the trials were unlikely to succeed.

The drug had been applied to patients with mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer’s disease and mild Alzheimer’s disease dementia and had showed signs of promise after a favourable performance in mid-stage Phase 2 studies last year. The companies said the recommendation to stop the studies was not based on safety concerns.

Biogen had a market capitalisation of $63.1bn at closing bell on Wednesday and its shares were up 6.5 per cent year to date. In pre-market trading this morning, its shares were down 26.1 per cent.

BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 0.75%; votes 0-0-9

BOE announces its latest monetary policy decision – 21 March 2019

  • Prior 0.75%
  • Official bank rate votes 0-0-9 vs 0-0-9 expected
  • Asset purchase target £435 billion
  • Corporate bond target £10 billion
Here’s the statement details:
  • Underlying inflation broadly on track with forecast
  • Employment growth could now moderate significantly
  • Brexit could prompt policy moves in either direction
  • Gradual, limited tightening still probably needed
  • Monetary response to Brexit is not automatic and could be in either direction
  • Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on confidence, short-term economic activity
Nothing too significant from the BOE here as the main talking point remains about Brexit and the central bank pretty much still has its hands tied as the Brexit saga continues to play out. The only way the BOE is able to decide on things is if the Brexit fog clears, and that doesn’t appear like it will happen any time soon.
The pound is relatively unchanged from the decision and statement here. Cable still sits at the lows for the day now at 1.3112.

China says that imports, exports rebounded in March

More attempts to talk up the economy and calm investor worries

China
  • Imports and exports trade are overall stable in Q1
  • Says that Chinese companies front-loaded exports last year
This of course comes after China’s February trade data was rather abysmal and caused concerns about the country’s economic outlook this year. They also talked up trade data for the first week of March in efforts to help soothe market participants earlier this month, so this just adds to that rhetoric.

China confirms that Lighthizer and Mnuchin to visit on 28-29 March

Comments by China’s commerce ministry

  • China vice premier, Liu He, is to visit US in early April for more trade talks
  • Says that Liu, Lighthizer and Mnuchin has had several calls recently
The headline confirms the report from overnight that they will be visiting China next week for further talks. Let’s see if they can make any more progress or if everything is going to fall apart. For now, it doesn’t look like there’s too much middle ground on this issue.
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