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Citigroup’s fat-finger trade may cost the bank more than US$50 million

  
  Analysis

This is referring to a data entry error, Bloomberg with the report, citing people familiar:

  • A trader in the firm’s Delta One trading unit in London was working from home during a bank holiday on May 2 when the person incorrectly added an extra zero to a trade early in European market hours.
  • a five-minute selloff in the OMX Stockholm 30 Index and ultimately wreaked havoc in bourses stretching from Paris to Warsaw and wiping out 300 billion euros ($322 billion) at one point

From the post at the time of the error, the impact:omx 02 May 2022 citi

Here’s a 5 point Federal Reserve cheat sheet – where they’re are at & where they’re going

  
  Analysis
  • Quantitative tightening (QT – or balance sheet reduction) started June 1
  • the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hike by 50bps at the June meeting
  • the FOMC will then follow up with a 50bp hike at the July meeting
  • Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at Jackson Hole in August (Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole is scheduled for August 25-27) where he may signal the next move
  • Up for grabs, the current debate, is for a September pause, or hike (25 or 50bps)
Powell moses

𝕋ℝ𝔸𝔻𝕀ℕ𝔾 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔼𝕋 𝕊𝔼𝕄𝕀ℕ𝔸ℝ 𝕆ℕ 𝟙𝟠𝕋ℍ 𝕁𝕌ℕ𝔼 -ℙ𝕃𝔸ℂ𝔼 𝔹𝔸ℝ𝕆𝔻𝔸 -#AnirudhSethi

  
Analysis, Trading Seminar

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Goldman Sachs warns of a confluence of unprecedented shocks slamming the economy

  
Analysis, Economy

“This is among — if not the most — complex, dynamic environments I’ve ever seen in my career,”

“The confluence of the number of shocks to the system to me is unprecedented.”

Waldron (referring to Dimon’s ‘hurricane’) said he would not be “using any weather analogies,” but enumerated risks from inflation, changing monetary policy and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could hit global economy.

Bloomberg link (gated)

Goldman Sachs logo

Reports that Putin had treatment for advanced cancer, survived an assassination attempt

  
Analysis, Politics

This comes via a US media report ICYMI. Newsweek cites an intelligence report with info via:

  • three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek

The report was produced at the end of May.

  • Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer
  • the assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin’s life in March

There are plenty of caveats in the report, this one is notable:

  • “We need to be mindful of the influence of wishful thinking,” cautions the retired Air Force leader. “We learned—or didn’t learn—that lesson the hard way with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.”
putin 11 May 2022

Major indices erase the week’s declines. Now up on the week.

  
Analysis, US Market

The major US indices are closing near session highs and also have erased the declines for the week. The two day losing streak to start the week was also snapped with the strong gains today.

Looking at the closing levels:

  • Dow industrial average is up 434.79 points or 1.33% at 33248.03
  • S&P index is closing up 75.64 points or 1.84% at 4176.88
  • NASDAQ index is closing up 322.44 points or 2.69% at 12316.90
  • Russell 2000 is up 42.84 points or 2.31% at 1897.67

On Friday last week, the closing levels showed:

  • Dow industrial average 33212.97
  • S&P index 4158.23
  • NASDAQ index 12131.13
  • Russell 2000 1887.85

With one more day in the holiday shortened week, the only thing the market has to get through is the US employment report tomorrow. Last week the S&P and NASDAQ snapped a 7 week losing streak. The Dow snapped an 8 week losing streak.

Recent price action in the US stocks has seen stocks moving higher on weaker data. The theory is that if the economy slows, so will inflation. That will keep the Fed from going full steam ahead into the tightening cycle, including a 50 basis point hike in September. That is why after Fed’s Brainard was more hawkish today, the stocks still managed to reverse and move back higher.

How will the market react after the employment number. The ADP job estimate today came in weaker than expectations at 128K vs. 300K estimate. The factory orders for April was also weaker at 0.3% vs. 0.7% estimate.

The expectations for nonfarm payroll data is for:

  • nonfarm payroll +325K vs. 428K last month
  • unemployment rate 3.5% vs. 3.6% last month
  • average hourly earnings 0.4% vs. 0.3% last month

European major indices close higher

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Both the UK and Italy are closed today but the German, France and Spain markets were open. Spain is closing near unchanged on the day , but Germany and France equity markets are closing with solid gains.

  • German DAX, +1.05%
  • France’s CAC, +1.27%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.3%

Looking at the German DAX, the high for the day reached 14492.78. That was just above the 100 day moving average at 14488.69. However the closing level at 14485.18 is just below that level. The last 4 days has seen at 100 day moving average tested. It would take a move above with momentum, to increase the bullish bias. Key level for both buyers and sellers.

The good news (for buyers) is that the index price is back above its 50% midpoint of the move down from the January 2022 high. That midpoint level comes in at 14363.27. Yesterday the price close below that level but rebounded back higher today.

German DAX
German DAX test its 100 day moving average
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