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What’s on the US economic calendar in the week ahead: June 13-17 It’s Fed week

It’s all about the FOMC in the week ahead as the murmurs begin of a 75 basis point hike, or even more. The baseline and the Fed communication has all suggested a 50 bps hike but with Friday’s CPI report coming in hotter-than-expected, the conversation changed.

Monday:

Nothing notable

Tuesday:

May PPI

Wednesday:

Import/export prices

May retail sales

Business inventories

NAHB housing market index

Weekly oil inventories

FOMC decision

Thursday:

Housing starts

Weekly jobless claims

Philly Fed

Friday:

Industrial production

Major indices have their worst week since January. NASDAQ index tumbles -5.6%

The stronger than expected CPI reversed premarket stock gains and pushed the major  indices  lower. A weaker Michigan consumer sentiment didn’t help with the overall sentiment.

  • The weekly percentage declines in the Dow, S&P, and  NASDAQ  weeks was the worst since January 21
  • Major indices closed near lows for the day
  • Dow Jones is down 10 of the last 11 weeks
  • NASDAQ and S&P is down 9 of the last 10 weeks
  • All 11 S&P sectors were lower. The worst sector was consumer discretionary which fell over -4.1%. Technology fell -3.9%, Financials fell -3.65%. Consumer staples was the best performer at -0.38%

The final numbers for the day are showing:

  • Dow industrial average fell -880.02 points or -2.73% at 31392.80
  • S&P index fell -116.96 points or -2.91% at 3900.85
  • NASDAQ index fell -414.19 points or -3.52% at 11340.03
  • Russell 2000 fell -50.57 points or -2.73% at 1800.28

For the trading week:

  • Dow fell -4.58%
  • S&P index fell -5.08%
  • NASDAQ index fell -5.6%
  • Russell 2000 fell -4.41%

Looking at the Dow 30, the worst performers were:

  • Dow, -6.06% -6.06%
  • Goldman Sachs -5.48%
  • Boeing, -5.05%
  • J.P. Morgan, -4.65%
  • Salesforce, -4.6%

The only winning stock in the Dow was Walmart with a gain of +0.63%. The best of the worst showed:

  • Verizon fell -0.16%
  • Procter & Gamble fell -0.36%
  • Walgreens boots fell -0.43%
  • Coca-Cola fell -0.58%

After the close Tesla has proposed a 3 for1 stock split. The stock closed at $696.69. In after-hours trading it is trading up to $716.23.

Amazon shares went through their 20 for 1 stock split this week. For the week after a rise on Monday, the shares are ending the week down -10.38%.

European equity close: Italy leads the freefall

Europe is getting hammered by inflation worries, rate hikes and the potential for a sovereign debt crisis, which is why Italy underperformed today.

  • Stoxx 600 -2.7%
  • UK FTSE 100 -2.1%
  • German DAX -3.1%
  • French CAC -2.8%
  • Italy MIB -5.0%
  • Spain IBEX -3.8%

European stocks had held up much better than US stocks since the March low, in part because of far less tech exposure and lower multiples. But then you get a day like today where Italian stocks cut through support in a 5% fall and it’s a reminder of the risks.Italy MIB

Japan top currency diplomat says authorities will take appropriate action if needed

  • Cannot disclose what was discussed
  • But we will take appropriate action if needed
  • There are various options in mind

That’s a more stern footing by Japanese officials but I would argue that it is all still part of their verbal intervention playbook. The overall remarks are still more or less the same as when we saw USD/JPY broke above 120 and that shows the lack of alternatives in their toolkit. Any serious intervention in the market is still a bit of a reach if you ask me.

Reuters poll on Federal Reserve expectations: 50bps in June and July with more to follow

Reuters poll report holds no surprises:

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve will hike its key interest rate by 50 basis points in June and July, with rising chances of a similar move in September, according to a Reuters poll of economists who see no pause in rate rises until next year.

Basically unanimous:

  • All 85 economists in a June 6-9 Reuters poll predicted a 50 basis point federal funds rate hike to 1.25%-1.50% on Wednesday, after a similar move last month. Another such hike was penciled in for July by all but a handful of survey contributors.

More here at the Reuters report if this is of any interest or news to anyone.

FOMC dates ahead this year:

fomc 2022 meeting June to December
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