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Jim Rogers: Here's The Most Important Thing On What Investors Should Do

  
  Education
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I would say one lesson we all need to learn is that after you’ve had a great success, you really should be very worried. Let’s say you sell and say you’ve made 10 times on your money. You should be extremely worried. You should close the curtains, not read, look at the TV, or anything because that’s when you’re full of hubris, arrogance, confidence. You think, “God, this is something easy,” and you’re desperate to jump around to something new. You should do your very best to avoid making another play until you’ve calmed down a lot. Just wait. It’s a very dangerous time for any investor.

Likewise, if you take a huge loss and there’s a big panic and things are dumped on your head because you’re overextended or wrong for whatever reason, calm down, don’t say, “I’m never gonna invest in stocks again or commodities or whatever.” That’s the time you really should be willing to invest again if you can gather together some capital money. The investments can be terribly emotional. You have to figure out a way to control your emotions and deal with your emotions if you’re going to survive in these markets.

My advice is that, most of the time, most investors should do nothing. They should look out the window or go to the beach. You should wait until you see money lying in the corner and all you have to do is go over and pick it up. That’s how most investors should invest. The problem is we all think we need to jump around all the time and be jumping in and out and that’s not good. (more…)

The Media Campaign Begins: BP Is Now Too Big To Fail

  
Analysis, Education, LINKS
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As prospects before BP get darker by the day, and the likelihood of bankruptcy grows, the TBTF propaganda begins. Evidence A – Bloomberg headline: “BP Demise Would Threaten U.S. Energy Security, Industry.” Just as the failure of bankrupt banks was supposed to lead to the destruction of capitalism, so the bankruptcy of BP plc is now supposed to lead to the degeneration of US energy independence. And who in their mind would force the Chapter 11 of a systemically important company? Once again, free market capitalism is about to walk out through the back door…

From Bloomberg:

 
 

The company’s demise would be disruptive to the American oil industry, given that BP is the largest oil and gas producer in the U.S., with about 1 million barrels per day of production. Some 7,000 of BP’s 23,000 U.S. employees work in the Houston area, many in a suburban office park just off the Katy Freeway.

From there the company runs its Gulf of Mexico offshore operations with a phalanx of engineers, geologists, and computer scientists. “These are highly compensated people,” says J. Robinson West, chairman of Washington-based consultants PFC Energy. (more…)

Great quote by Marty Schwartz which sums up where so many people go wrong in trading.

  
  Education
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This paragraph is in my mind one of the most influential in all the trading literature, encompassing so many lessons about trading that its almost hard to know where to start, some of the themes covered in the seven lines of this paragraph include:
  • Ego getting in the way of good practice.  
  • Adaptability.
  • Trading as a psychological game.
  • Overcoming yourself rather than the market.
  • Trying to prove you are right.
  • Relying on hope.
  • Objective assessment of signs and signals from the market. 
  • Maintaining an open mind. 
  • The objectives of trading is to win not to be right.
Traders would do well to keep a copy of this paragraph visible as a reminder to try and ward off the inevitable occasions when they succumb to their trading demons.
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