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Jeremy Grantham's 10 Investment Lessons

  
  Education
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1. Believe in history: “history repeats and repeats, and forget it at your peril. All bubbles break, all investment frenzies pass away.”

2. Neither a lender nor a borrower be: “Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience.”
3. Don’t put all your treasure in one boat: “This is about as obvious as any investment advice could be … Several different investments, the more the merrier, will give your portfolio resilience, the ability to withstand shocks.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term: Wait for the good cards. If you’ve waited and waited some more until finally a very cheap market appears, this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals: “The individual is far better-positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism: “optimism comes with a downside, especially for investors: optimists don’t like to hear bad news.” (more…)

Trading advice for preparing for your best trading day

  
  Education
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Trading advice1. Harness the power of intention

As you become more and more focused as a trader and as you learn to clear your emotions the power of your intention will become stronger and stronger. Begin the day by setting the intention that you will be successful, that you will be profitable, and that you will be safe. If possible visualize it, or feel that it will happen.

If any feelings or thoughts come up contrary to that intention (e.g. I lost yesterday perhaps I’ll lose today) go straight to the next point and clear that thought/feeling.

2. Clear limiting thoughts and emotions

Did anything happen yesterday or on previous trading days that is bothering you? Anything happening in your personal life that may be affecting your state of mind? Any recurring thoughts or feelings that come up during the trading day?

3. Brain power

Make sure that you have exercised and eaten properly so that your mind is clear and fresh. Have the right snacks at hand so that you can keep your blood sugar balanced, so that you mind stays fresh and optimally focused.

Timing

4. Know when you are going to trade

You may say “How do I know when I am going to trade ahead of time?”. In response I’d say, “if your trading system doesn’t tell you when you are going to be trading ahead of time, then you are missing out on a huge advantage”. As you’ll see from the various posts on cycle trading I am convinced that time is as important a factor in determining entries as price. This is why I use a combination of cycles and harmonics in addition to regular technical analysis to determine entries.

Adopting this trading methodology was the single biggest contributing factor for me in becoming a consistently profitable trader, because I can calmly prepare for the times that I am going to trade and I can relax my focus during the times when I know I should be on the sidelines.

Risk Management For Traders

  
  Education
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One of Sun Tzu’s most famous quotes is: “Every battle is won before it is fought.” The phrase implies that it is planning and strategy that wins wars and not the battles themselves. Similarly, successful traders commonly quote the phrase: “Plan the trade and trade the plan.” Just like in war, planning ahead can often mean the difference between success and failure.

Stop-loss (S/L) and take-profit (T/P) points represent two key ways in which traders can plan ahead when trading. Successful traders know what price they are willing to pay and at what price they are willing to sell, and they measure the resulting returns against the probability of the stock hitting their goals. If the adjusted return is high enough, then they execute the trade.

Conversely, unsuccessful traders often enter a trade without having any idea of at what points they will sell at a profit or a loss. Like gamblers on a lucky or unlucky streak, emotions begin to take over and dictate their trades. Losses often provoke people to hold on and hope to make their money back, while profits often entice traders to imprudently hold on for even more gains.

 Take-Profit Points, trading greed, trading fear, trading emotions, financial behavior 


A stop-loss point is the price at which a trader will sell a stock and take a loss on the trade. Often times, this happens when a trade does not pan out the way a trader hoped. The points are designed to prevent the “it will come back” mentality and limit losses before they escalate. For example, if a stock breaks below a key support level, traders often sell as soon as possible.

On the other side of the table, a take-profit point is the price at which a trader will sell a stock and take a profit on the trade. Often times, this is when there is limited additional upside given the risks. For example, if a stock is approaching a key resistance level after a large move upwards, traders may want to sell before a period of consolidation takes place. (more…)

Trading Is A Business. Treat It Like One.

  
  Education
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As I was preparing a presentation and looking for some interesting material I came across “Trader Vic – Methods Of A Wall Street Master” and this paragraph got my attention:

“I base my business philosophy on three principles, listed here in terms of importance: preservation of capital, consistent profitability, and the persuit of superior returns. These principals are basic in the sense that they underlie and guide all my market decisions. Each principle carries a different weight in my speculative strategy, and they evolve from one to another. That is, preservation of capital leads to consistent profits, which makes pursuit of superior returns possible.”

This was written in 1991 but I think its still a very valid proposition. I am also adding this line from the same book, “In my view, the way to build wealth is to preserve capital, make consistent profits, and wait patiently for the right opportunity to make extraordinary gains.”

14 Meaningless Phrases -You Will Always Hear on Blue Channels

  
  Education
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  1. The easy money has been made

When to use it: Any time a market or stock has already gone up a lot.BLUE CHANNELS IN INDIA

Why it’s smart-sounding: It implies wise, prudent caution. It implies that you bought or recommended the stock a long time ago, before the easy money was made (and are therefore smart). It suggests that there might be further upside but that there might also be future downside, because the stock is “due for a correction” (another smart-sounding meaningless phrase that you can use all the time). It does not commit you to any specific recommendation or prediction. It protects you from all possible outcomes: If the stock drops, you can say “as I said…” If the stock goes up, you can say “as I said…”

Why it’s meaningless: It’s a statement of the obvious. It’s a description of what has happened, not what will happen. It requires no special insights or powers of analysis. It tells you nothing that you don’t already know. Also, it’s not true: The money that has been made was likely in no way “easy.” Buying stocks that are rising steadily is a lot “easier” than buying stocks that the market has left for dead (because everyone thinks you’re stupid to buy stocks that no one else wants to buy.)

2.I’m cautiously optimistic. (more…)

Shenq and Hong, Value Investing in Asia I can’t begin to guess how

  
Analysis, Education

I can’t begin to guess how many feet of library shelves it would take to house all the books that have been written on value investing. The best answer is probably “too many.” So do we need yet another one? Yes. Value Investing in Asia by Stanley Lim Peir Shenq and Cheong Mun Hong (Wiley, 2018) takes the value investor into uncharted waters, waters rife with dangers but with the potential for solid profit.
The authors offer general, somewhat eclectic, guidelines to screen for companies that may be worth investing in. More important, however, as they stress, is knowing what not to invest in. They highlight both financial and non-financial red flags. Among the financial red flags are abnormally high margins, trade receivables growing faster than revenue, inventory growing faster than revenue, consistent excessive fair value gains, companies in a dilutive mood, leverage, and seemingly unnecessary borrowings. Among the non-financial red flags are massive reshuffling of the company’s officers, infamous directors and shareholders, when things vanish into thin air (e.g., a fire destroys a company’s books and financial records or a truck carrying five years of financial documents is stolen—the truck is later recovered but not the documents), and “innovative” business deals.
Five case studies illustrate the way the authors invest, each with a unique “hook”: value through assets, current earning power, growth through cyclicality, special situation, and high growth (Tencent).
The book concludes with five interviews with Asian fund managers. There’s also some online bonus content.
Investors who are thinking about buying individual Asian stocks would do well to read this book, not so much as a value investing primer but as an Asian investing primer. 

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