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Germany August construction PMI 46.3 vs 49.5 prior

Latest data released by Markit – 5 September 2019

  • Prior 49.5
The slump in German construction activity continues with the headline reading falling to its weakest level since June 2014. Although a minor data point, this continues to reaffirm deteriorating growth conditions in the German economy as it looks set for a technical recession this year.
Looking at the details, the construction order book (new orders) fell for a fourth month in a row while output expectations fall to their weakest level since October 2015.

Eurozone August final services PMI 53.5 vs 53.4 prelim

Latest data released by Markit – 4 September 2019

  • Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.8 prelim
Preliminary figures can be found here. The slight upward revisions were preempted by the earlier French and German readings and this just reaffirms the divergence still seen in the Eurozone economy as a whole.
While the services sector is still seen holding up decently, the manufacturing sector continues to experience a downturn and that is leaving for sluggish growth conditions in Q3 – and likely to extend towards Q4 as well.

Japan Industrial production for July (preliminary) 0.7% y/y (expected -0.6%)

Japan preliminary Industrial production data for July 2019

0.7% y/y
  • expected -0.6%, prior was -3.8%
1.3% m/m
  • expected 0.3%, prior was -3.3%
Manufacturers forecast ibdustrial output for August at +1.3% m/m
  •  September forecast is for -1.6% m/m
y/y and m/m beats for this data in July is a positive result. Earlier we got CPI data which was stull shoing indications of being well below the BOJ target.

China clamps down on capital flight risk as yuan weakens

As China allows the yuan to depreciate to a level not seen in 11 years, financial authorities have rolled out measures to stem capital outflows from the mainland.

The new rules include stricter oversight of banks in times of capital flight and restrictions on real estate developers’ access to foreign currency bonds. If the financial system is judged to be on the brink on instability, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, will declare the situation “abnormal.”

Under that assessment level, banks will be evaluated on the amount of yuan wired offshore and the volume of foreign currency sold. If the levels stray too far from the national average, the bank’s grade will diminish. Such lenders will then face limits on banking activities.

China is tolerating the softer yuan to ease the impact on domestic exporters during the prolonged U.S. trade war. But the government looks to avoid a repeat of 2015, when currency traders dumped the yuan after authorities lowered the reference rate.

In the wake of that currency shock, the foreign exchange regulator took steps in 2016 and 2017 to slow the outflow of funds. At the time, foreign nationals encountered hurdles when trying to transfer sums as small as a few thousand dollars. (more…)

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