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Eurozone September manufacturing PMI’s 45.6 vs 47.3 expected

Latest data release by Markit

Graph
  • Prior 47.0
  • Services PMI 52.0  vs 53.3  expected
  • Prior 53.5
  • Composite PMI 50.4  vs 52.0 expected
  • Prior 51.9

Eurozone figures reflecting the weaker German and French PMI’s out earlier. Another weak set of eurodata and global trade concerns are continuing to drag down the zone. Calls for fiscal stimulus from the ECB likely to grow.

India’s corporate tax cuts credit negative, will widen fiscal deficit: S&P

Rating firm S&P Global said on Friday India’s move to cut corporate tax rates was a “credit negative development” despite potentially boosting the broader economy as it will widen its fiscal deficit.

The cuts are likely to “boost sentiment and support the broader economy at a time when momentum is flagging”, said Andrew Wood, director of sovereign and international public finance ratings at S&P Global Ratings.

“Nevertheless, we believe that the cuts will invariably lead to higher central and general government fiscal deficits, absent equivalent revenue generating measures,” Wood told Reuters.

The Indian government slashed corporate taxes on Friday, giving a surprise $20.5 billion break aimed at reviving private investment and lifting growth from a six-year low that has caused job losses and fuelled discontent in the countryside.

The news sent shares sharply higher, but bond yields spiked to a near three-month peak on speculation that the government may have to borrow more to meet its expenditure needs, as the measures will mean a revenue loss of 1.45 trillion rupees for the current year.

OECD sees global economy slipping towards weakest growth in a decade

OECD cuts forecasts to the global economy, warns of entrenched uncertainty

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.2%)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 3.0% (previously 3.4%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.4% (previously 2.8%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (previously 2.3%)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.1% (previously 6.2%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (previously 6.0%)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.4%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.7%)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 0.9% (previously 1.0%)
Those are quite the amount of downgrades relative to its May forecast.
OECD says that trade tensions are the main cause for a more fragile and uncertain outlook to the global economy. Noting that intensifying trade conflicts and governments not doing enough to prevent damage will hurt global growth momentum going into next year.
The 2.9% forecast for global growth this year is the weakest projection since the financial crisis, almost a decade ago.
OECD

Eurozone July construction output -0.7% vs 0.0% m/m prior

Latest data released by Eurostat – 18 September 2019

  • Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.6%
  • Construction output +1.1% y/y
  • Prior +1.0%; revised to +1.6%
The positive revisions sort of take away some of the negative impact from the headline monthly figure but nonetheless, it still underscores some weakness and sluggishness in construction activity in the region too start Q3.
A minor data point but feeds into the overall softness of economic activity in the euro area as we navigate through the second-half of the year.

BREAKING :China to add soybeans, pork to tariffs exemption list – state media

Xinhua reports on the latest developments

  • Says to support companies purchasing US soybeans, pork
I don’t think this comes as too much of a surprise as it has been touted heavily since yesterday already. This is just the official confirmation of the reports that have been out and about over the past 24 hours.
Nonetheless, it will still keep the “feel good factor” in US-China trade relations throughout this week but we’ll see how things go when both sides sit down face-to-face in October.

Ifo sees a German recession this year

Ifo cuts its GDP forecast for the German economy

Germany
  • Sees 2019 GDP growth forecast at 0.5% (previously 0.6%)
  • Sees 2020 GDP growth forecast at 1.2% (previously 1.7%)
  • Expects Q3 GDP to fall by 0.1% q/q; possible slight recovery in Q4
This feeds into the other growth forecast cuts we saw yesterday here. Ifo also notes that the industrial weakness is starting to spread to other sectors and that’s pretty much a warning sign in my view that things may get worse before they get better for Germany.
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