November is an interesting month for seasonals because there are a few strong trends and some that often interrupted.

Cable is an interesting example. One the face of it, the 0.42% average decline over the past 20 years is unremarkable but when you strip out the past two US Presidential elections (2020 and 2016) there’s a remarkable pattern of GBP weakness. It’s the same with the dollar index overall as it struggled in both 2016 and 2020 but otherwise has risen in every year since 2010.

That speaks to the art of seasonal trading in a month that’s notable for a few reasons.

I’ve written about this forever and it’s come through countless times. There’s a very strong seasonal trend of strength for gold in Dec/Jan. Recently, it’s been preceded by weakness in November that’s turned into a buying opportunity. Given the inflationary concerns in markets and sudden volatility in bonds, I don’t see why this year should be any different. Look to buy a dip in mid-to-late November.

One of the most well-known seasonals is that stocks everywhere tend to do well in November. Here are the 20-year averages in various indexes:

The global minimum tax has been in the works for awhile so it’s not a surprise. I could see it impacting capital flows over time but it’s tough to see it in any tradable way, especially with so much of the implementation (and loopholes) still unknown.

Other headlines from the draft: