China Evergrande says it has resumed construction work in 6 cities, on more than 10 projects
Archives of “October 25, 2021” day
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China economic growth forecasts being slashed to close to 30 year lows
Some info from various places around on what analysts are looking for from Chinese GDP ahead.
Bloomberg cites Citi and BoA:
- among those sounding the warning that expansion will fall short this year of the 8.2% anticipated by the consensus of economists. The slump could last into next year, forcing growth below 5%, they warn. Outside 2020’s 2.3%, that would be the weakest in three decades.
BoA:
- President Xi may … be embracing … restructuring of the economy … “If so, the data flow from China could confound even the pessimists, and we are on guard for that scenario unfolding”
- predicted growth of 7.7% this year and 4% in 2022
Meanwhile Goldman Sachs elsewhere have cut their 2022 GDP forecast to 5.2% from 5.6%
The counter to this is that China is actively seeking to boost domestic demand. The country was not as generous with fiscal support as many other economies so they have scope to splash out stimulus if they do decide to. We may get something out of this:
- The leaders of China’s Communist Party, the party’s decision-making Central Committee, will convene on November 8. the meeting will go through to November 11.
although the main policy focus of the summit is expected to be on power and political structure.
Fed Chair Powell says he thinks it time to taper, not to raise rates
Chair of the Federal Reserve System Powell spoke on Friday, said “I do think it is time to taper”.
He added a ‘not yet’ on rates of course: “I don’t think it is time to raise rates”
Powell wants to see further about market improvement before hiking rates. On inflation:
- High inflation will likely last well into next year
- Supply bottlenecks are still weighing
- If we see persistent inflation we would use our tools
The consensus expectation for the coming taper include:
- to be announced at this week’s FOMC meeting
- likely to begin immediately, not waiting until December
- $15bn /month tapering each month … which would see completion by June 2022
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Last week saw a rising tide in US yields right across maturities.
Russia COVID-19 outbreak accelerating with low vaccine rate
Vaccination rates across Eastern Europe are low, which is stymieing reopening plans.
Last week:
- Russia orders a one-week lockdown with covid cases at record high
- Moscow is the country’s most populous city, to shut down all but essential business October 30 – November 7
Vaccine hesitancy is a big problem in Russia, only around 36% of its population has one vaccine shot so far.
China’s latest COVID-19 outbreak is likely to spread further
A spokesman at China’s National Health Commission spoke with media on Sunday, saying that the most recent coronavirus outbreak is increasingly likely to spread further.
Over 100 cases have been confirmed over the last week across 11 provincial areas
cross-provincial tours to and from regions deemed of higher virus risk have been suspended
Beijing is to impose travel restrictions to the city by people who have been to counties with at least one infection
The mid-year outbreak in China saw strict measures reimposed including impacts on ports and other business. China is making vaccine progress, around 75 are said to have received complete vaccination with Sinovac and Sinopharm.
Thought For A Day
