Archives of “October 12, 2021” day

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ICYMI – European Union is to push for an end to the exploitation of Arctic gas, oil and coal

  
  Analysis

European Union plans talks with partners over a possible multilateral ban on the development and purchase of hydrocarbon reserves from the Arctic

The topic to be brought up at the UN climate summit next month.
  • EU member states import Arctic fossil fuels including an estimated 87% of liquefied natural gas produced in the Russian Arctic
More at that link above. Its the EU … concrete action (if it ever comes) is likely to be a long way away ….

3 reasons for the weakness of EUR from Goldman Sachs

  
Analysis, Forex

Goldman Sachs notes the weakness of the euro and EUR/USD nudging year to date lows

  • is down 1.6% against the majors since early September
  • EUR/USD is just off fresh year-to-date lows
  • Over that period, the single currency has underperformed all of our models, where the fundamentals point to some deterioration but not to this degree
Offers up 3 reasons, none of which should come as much surprise, but a useful quick summary nonetheless:
we think this underperformance is likely a combination of 
  • lower real rate differentials (despite European nominals leading the charge higher, the change in policy expectations is not enough to offset the shift in inflation compensation), 

Platts on oil: OPEC is producing far below what it said it would

  
  Analysis

An overnight piece from Platts on OPEC.

Analysts at the firm note that many OPEC members did not hit their increased quota in September
  • the coalition is producing far below what it said it would
  • 19 members with production quotas under the OPEC+ supply accord were a combined 570,000 b/d below their allocations for the month, bringing compliance to 111.5%. 
  • The shortfalls have contributed to what many analysts say is a tight market.

Changing Your Self: Why Change Is So Difficult

  
Analysis, Education

imageMaking changes in life—and in trading—can be scary. Every change is a voyage from the more known to the less known.  The pull of habit and safety can become a weighty anchor, grounding us when we long to soar.

This morning, a wise trader suggested to me that people don’t fail to make changes because they lack motivation or because they have some need for self-sabotage. Rather, people long to make changes and still can’t sustain change because they have other, hidden commitments.

When you desire to change your trading or your lifestyle or your relationships but find yourself stuck re-reading old life chapters, it is because something in those chapters pulls you back. Disrupting your overt motivation to change is a hidden motivation that has been operating in the background all along.

The trader who cannot bring themselves to take more risk has a hidden commitment, perhaps for safety. Until that hidden commitment is actively engaged and addressed, it will work at cross-purposes with the desired goal.

How do you happily integrate hidden commitments with personal goals? The first step is to become aware of those commitments—and to recognize that they are there for a (usually good) reason. In the next posts in this series, we’ll examine the change process and how traders can bring their real selves closer to their ideals.

UBS on US jobs markets – nothing to stop the Fed from tapering

  
  Analysis
In brief:
employment report was a reminder of two key points in the pandemic data cycle: 
  • watch the revisions
  • and downplay seasonal adjustments
Data keeps being revised stronger, and nothing is seasonally normal this year. 
 
The conclusion of the overall employment situation is that there is nothing to stop the Federal Reserve from scaling back its bond purchases. 
Bolding is mine.
Noting this from UBS analysts on last Friday's US Nonfarm payroll data.

US stocks close near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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Stocks still off into the close

The US stock indices sold off into the close and are closing near the low levels for the day.

  • The Dow and S&P are lower for the 2nd consecutive day
  • Utilities and Communications lag
  • Materials and Real Estate lead
A look at the indices at the close show:
  • Dow -249.40 points or -0.72% at 34496.84
  • S&P index -30.31 points or -0.69% at 4361.04
  • NASDAQ index -93.33 points or -0.64% at 14486.21
WTI crude oil futures hit this highest level in 7 years. The US treasury market was closed in observance of Columbus Day.  But concerns about higher interest rates persistent the market. The U.S. Treasury will auction off three and 10 year notes tomorrow at 1 PM ET. They will auction off 30 year bonds on Wednesday.
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