August 21, 2021 - Financial Occultist

Wild divergence. Major decline in Asian stocks suggests a systemic selloff in global equities ahead.

Feds Powell to speak at 10 AM ET on Friday August 27

Next week’s key events and releases will be highlighted by the Jackson Hole symposium which will take place from August 26 through August 28. The main speech made by Fed chair Powell, will take place on August 27 at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.

The market will be focused on any time one projections from the Fed chair for taper. There have been a number of Fed officials who have expressed the desire to begin the taper sooner rather than later. However, Feds Kaplan – one of the more hawkish Fed Presidents – dialed back a bit on concerns if the Delta variants starts to impact production.

Other key events include:

Monday, August 23:

Australia flash manufacturing and services PMI 7 PM ET/2300 GMT
France flash manufacturing and services PMI. 3:15 AM ET/715 GMT. Estimate 57.1 manufacturing. 56.2 services
German flash manufacturing and service PMI, 3:30 AM ET/730 GMT. Estimate 65.1 manufacturing and 61.0 services
UK flash manufacturing and services PMI. 4:30 AM ET/830 GMT. Estimate 59.5 manufacturing and 59.0 services
US flash manufacturing and services PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT. Estimate 62.8 manufacturing and 59.1 services

Tuesday, August 24

New Zealand retail sales, 6:45 PM ET Monday/2245 GMT Monday. Estimate 2.0% versus 2.5% last month. Core retail sales 1.9% versus 3.2% last month
US new home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 698K versus 676K last month
US Richard Fed manufacturing index. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Last month 27.0

Wednesday, August 25:

German Ifo business climate. 4 AM ET/800 GMT. Estimate 100.6 versus 100.8 last month
US durable goods orders. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate -0.2% versus +0.9% last month. Core durable goods +0.4% estimate versus +0.5% last month
Weekly crude oil inventories. 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT. Crude oil has been down for seven consecutive days

Thursday, August 26.

US preliminary GDP 3Q. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate 6.6% versus 6.5% for the first cut
US unemployment claims. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate 355K versus 348K last week
Start of Jackson Hole symposium

Friday, August 27

Australian retail sales, 9:30 PM ET Thursday/1330 GMT. Estimate -2.0% versus -1.8% last month
US Core PCE price index MoM, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
Fed chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
US revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Estimate 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 71.2 versus 70.2 preliminary

Saturday, August 28

Jackson Hole symposium

Jackson Hole Summit to be held virtually

21-Aug-21 07:44 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

The summit was to be held face-to-face

The Jackson Hole Summit will be held virtually instead of face-to-face. This according to the Kansas City Fed who stages the event annually. The risk of Covid is leading to the decision. The scheduled three day event will now be all conducted on August 27th.

With the event now being held virtually, I can’t think that the Fed Chair would be in a hurry to start to taper, or tilt more in that direction.

Moreover, if other events start to cancel/report restrictions on events (think football), it would be a temporary negative to the economy until this crisis is once again over. The good however,, is it may also get more people to get vaccinated (think the rabid football fan base from southeastern portion of the United States where most of the hotspots and unvaccinated are found).