Archives of “April 2021” month

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Japan’s Golden Week holidays begin Thursday

  
  Analysis
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29 April to 5 May inclusive (Thursday to Wednesday)

Friday 30th sneaks in, its not actually a holiday but will be taken by many.
Tokyo FX markets will be absent for the holidays with therefore reduced liquidity during the Asian timezone.
Holidays in the 4 prefectures, Tokyo and the western prefectures of Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo, with a state of emergency will be subdued. Residents of the four prefectures have been asked to reduce outings, to a minimum and refrain from travelling outside the prefectures. Residents of other parts of the country were urged not to travel to the four prefectures.

EU says UK economy predicted to grow at fastest rate since WW2

  
  Analysis

The good feels on the UK economy are growing, this over the weekend from the Bank of England:

  • Bank of England Dep Gov Broadbent sees “very rapid” economic growth at least over the next couple of quarters
Adding now from the EY Item Club over the weekend:
  • upgrades its GDP forecasts for 2021
  • expects GDP to grow by 6.8% in 2021, previous was +5% (January forecast)
  • UK economy expected to climb back to its pre-pandemic peak by the middle of 2022
  • Ey looking for a surge in consumer spending after a rise in saving by wealthier households during lockdown
  • successful vaccination rollout
  • easing of the lockdown

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The Ernst & Young accountants’ ITEM Club
  • Running for 25 years
  • A non-governmental forecasting group
  • produces quarterly UK economic forecasts

Goldman Sachs on comparative global economic growth rates: US to peak in Q2

  
Analysis, Economy

Research via Goldman Sachs, in summary:

US GDP growth likely to peak in Q2 (citing maximum impact of fiscal stimulus and economic reopening then tailing)
  • expect that core PCE inflation will temporarily surge above the Federal Reserve 2% target
  • US growth to come in at 10.5% in Q2
  • 7% GDP growth forecast for H2 thereafter
Non-US global growth will peak in 3Q 2021
  • peak growth rates in Europe, Japan, and EM ex. China, among other economies
For the UK, GS see 7.8% growth for 2021, sees “UK economy is rebounding sharply from the Covid crisis”
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In the olden days, comparative growth rates would have implications for monetary policy. Faster growing economies would tend to have higher interest rates, which would have implications for FX rates. Where we are right now is every central bank across DM doing the limbo dance … lower for longer is the mantra so the implications for FX are lesser.

US to immediately send raw COVID-19 vaccine supplies to help India

  
  Analysis

US President Biden promised urgent assistance for India, on Sunday (US time):

  • will immediately send raw materials for COVID-19 vaccines, medical equipment and protective gear
  • “Just as India sent assistance to the United States as our hospitals were strained early in the pandemic, we are determined to help India in its time of need”
The UK, France and Germany all committed to urgent aid for the country over the weekend.

US will urge its allies to increase pressure on China over Xinjiang at G7 meeting in June

  
  Analysis

US President Joe Biden will attend the G7 meeting in June in the UK.

A White House official says at the meeting the US will urge its allies to increase pressure on China over the use of forced labor in its northwestern Xinjiang province. Said also the meeting will focus on
  • health security
  • a synchronized economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • concrete actions on climate change
  • elevating shared democratic values within the G7
Its the China issue that is likely to be a focus come Monday FX markets. I don’t think it’ll have too much of an impact but we might get an early risk-off wobble on this.
Via Reuters, more there if you are interested.
US President Joe Biden will attend the G7 meeting in June in the UK. 
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