Archives of “April 2021” month

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Both the S&P and NASDAQ close at all time record highs

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ index remains below its all-time intraday high. The S&P extended its all-time intraday high and backed off

Both the S&P index and the NASDAQ index are closing at record high levels.
  • For the S&P, the previous all time high close came in at 4185.47. The index closed just above that level at 4187.74
  • For the NASDAQ index the previous all-time high close came in at 14095.47.  Closing level came in at 14138.78
The Dow Jones lagged and close lower on the day. It is down for the second time in three days
The Russell 2000 was higher by 1.15%
The final numbers are showing:

  • S&P index close up 7.57 points or 0.18% at 4187.74. The high price reached 4194.19. That was just above the all-time high price reached on Friday at 4194.16
  • NASDAQ index rose 121.97 points or 0.87% at 14138.78. It’s high price reached 14154.03. The all-time high price is at 14175.12 reached on February 16
  • Dow industrial average felt -61.52 points or -0.18% at 33981.97
  • Russell 2000 closed up 26.13 points or 1.15% at 2297.99
below is the NASDAQ index. The prices currently between the previous record high close, and the all-time intraday high.

NASDAQ index remains below its all-time intraday high. The S&P extended its all-time intraday high and backed off
Tesla report earnings after the close.

UPDATE for TESLA earnings:
  • earnings-per-share $0.93 versus $0.79 estimate
  • revenues $10.39 billion versus $10.29 billion estimate
  • expects to achieve 50% annual growth in deliveries
  • free cash flow $293 million versus estimate of -$82.8 million
The price of TSLA stock is trading above and below unchanged from the closing level in volatile trade. The stock price closed at $738.20.

Breakout in copper prices a positive sign but 2010 high looms

  
  Analysis

What’s next for copper

What's next for copper
There are some very compelling arguments that a significant deficit in copper production is looming.
Today’s price action certainly underscores that. It’s up 10 cents to $4.43/lb, the highest since 2011.
All the infrastructure spending,combined with short-term mine closures at the height of the pandemic, have created a boom. With that, copper will quickly threaten the 2010 high of $4.65.
If that gives way, the sky is the limit. It’s tough to envision a scenario where near-term demand drops (even at record high costs) because overall copper costs in most products and projects are still a small fraction of overall costs.
On the supply side, the pipeline for copper projects isn’t going to catch up for awhile in part because there’s a long lag between sanctioning and production.
For broader market watchers, the signal from Dr Copper is very bullish at the moment and I believe that’s the right take.
If you’re more interested in a deeper look at copper and refining, here’s a extensive thread that shows that refiners are buying unrefined product above the cost of production. The takeaway is that they must believe prices are heading higher and are struggling to meet demand.

OPEC+ will press on with plans to hike production – report

  
Analysis, Crude

JMMC didn’t revise demand forecast today

OPEC+ ministers will meet virtually on Wednesday but the plan to hike production by nearly 800,000 barrels per day in May is unchanged, according to a Platts report.
This is no surprise. There had been some light talk about delays due to rising covid cases in India but demand elsewhere remains solid and growing.
The spot to watch — as always — is Saudi Arabia. A bit more than half of the planned production increase in the month is due to the reversal of Saudi voluntary cuts. If they don’t like the demand picture, they could hold off.
WTI is back to flat on the day at $62.14 after falling as low as $60.66. One-hour chart:
JMMC didn't revise demand forecast today

Iran president says “significant progress has been made” on nuclear deal negotiations Mon 26 Apr 2021 14:04:25 GMT

  
  Analysis

Positive take on JCPOA talks

Positive take on JCPOA talks
Iran is in the midst of a brutal run of covid-19, with nearly 500 people dead yesterday (a record).
But the eyes of the world are on the negotiations around a nuclear deal, with talks resuming today.
The President said “significant progress has been made” but also lamented political hurdles.
Despite that, oil has pared some losses in recent trade. WTI is at $61.51 from a low of $60.66.

Ifo economist says that virus situation, production bottlenecks is subduing German recovery

  
  Analysis

Remarks by Ifo economist, Klaus Wohlrabe

Germany
  • Industrial sector is booming but has problems with pre-production
  • 45% of industrial companies complain about pre-production problems, bottlenecks
  • Order book situation has improved at least, as well as capacity utilisation
Nothing here that hasn’t really been foreshadowed by the PMI readings over the past few months really. The supply bottlenecks have also led to higher input costs and in turn, putting upwards pressure on prices in general as well.

Germany April Ifo business climate index 96.8 vs 97.8 expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Ifo – 26 April 2021

  • Prior 96.6
  • Expectations 99.5 vs 101.2 expected
  • Prior 100.4; revised to 100.3
  • Current assessment 94.1 vs 94.4 expected
  • Prior 93.0; revised to 93.1

Slight delay in the release by the source. The readings miss on estimates but the headline and current assessment show some mild improvement relative to March. That said, expectations see a drop and that may be tied to prolonged tighter restrictions.

As much as vaccine optimism is still part of the bigger picture, the prevailing virus situation does little to ease comfort as measures to curb the virus spread looks set to continue through to the latter stages of Q2 at the very least.

Risk keeps in a better spot ahead of European trading

  
  Analysis

Dollar softer, US futures a little higher

Asian equities are also faring better although Chinese stocks have pared their earlier advance to keep closer to flat levels on the session currently.
That said, a broadly weaker dollar is also some reason for risk trades to keep more optimistic with the greenback surrendering key technical ground since last Friday.
EUR/USD is holding above 1.2100 as it keeps a solid break above the 100-day moving average on Friday, while AUD/USD is leading gains in a push to 0.7770 levels.
S&P 500 futures and Dow futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures are flat.
Elsewhere, 10-year Treasury yields continue to trend more sideways as it holds slightly higher on the day at 1.568% – not much changed since the latter stages of last week.

FX option expiries for 26 April 10am New York cut

  
Analysis, Forex

A look at what is on the board for today

FX

FX
Not much on the board for today, with there being no significant ones. Even the board for the rest of the week seems a bit lackluster in terms of sizes (those near current spot levels at least) so just keep that in mind over the coming days.
There are some modest expiries for EUR/USD at around 1.2100 and some at 1.2140-50 on Wednesday but besides that, there isn’t much else to take note of for now.
It will be a big week in terms of headline risks with key releases, the FOMC and OPEC+ meetings, and big tech earnings releases adding to the mix. So, those might just be the more important factors dictating market sentiment in the days ahead.
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