IMF more upbeat on global growth
- 2021 would be strongest year since 1976
- Advanced economies +5.1% vs +4.3% in Jan
- Emerging markets 6.7% vs 6.3% in January
- The IMF sees 4.4% growth in 2022
- Says global economy contracted 3.3% in 2020 vs 3.5% prior estimate
- US GDP seen at 6.4% from 5.1% in Jan estimate on stronger stimulus
- Says that growth depends on vaccine rollout
- Sees multi-speed recovery reflecting vaccine rollout differences, extent of fiscal support and structural factors
Country numbers compared to January estimates:
- US 6.4% vs 5.1%
- Germany 3.6% vs 3.5%
- France 5.8% vs 5.5%
- Japan 3.3% vs 3.1%
- UK 5.3% vs 4.5%
- Canada 5.0% vs 3.6%
- China 8.4% vs 8.1%
- India 12.5% vs 11.5%
The biggest delta in all of those is Canada, which helps to explain why CAD has been the best-performing G10 currency so far this year.