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March non-farm payrolls preview: Good Friday release, by the numbers

  
  Analysis

A look at what to expect in the March 2021 non-farm payrolls report

non-farm payrolls report unemployemnt rate
  • Consensus estimate +650K
  • Private +640K
  • February +379K
  • Highest estimate +1000K (3 estimates)
  • Lowest estimate +232K (Southbay)
  • Average estimate +671K
  • Standard deviation +155K
  • Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 6.0% vs 6.2% prior
  • Participation rate consensus +61.5% vs 61.4% prior
  • Prior underemployment U6 prior 11.1%
  • Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.5% y/y vs +5.3% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.1% vs +0.2% prior
  • Avg weekly hours exp 34.7 vs 34.6 prior

Here’s the March jobs story so far

  • ADP +517K vs +550K expected
  • ISM services employment not yet released
  • ISM manufacturing employment 59.6 vs 54.4 prior
  • Initial jobless claims survey week 765K vs 847K in February
  • Conference Board help wanted online demand for hiring not yet released
  • Challenger Job Cuts 30K vs 34K prior

Non-farm payrolls is being released on Good Friday, which is an unusual situation because bond and equity markets will be closed. That will leave all the action in FX but London will be especially thin because it’s a holiday there.

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