Archives of “November 2020” month

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US election – AP declares Biden the winner

  
Analysis, Politics

AP have called the win for Biden:

  • Also declares Biden has won Pennsylvania
Joining in on pronouncing the inevitable, NBC and CNN have also both projected Biden has won the US presidency. Edison Research also.
Fox says it has still not made a final call. Which is slow for them, they were leaders on election night calling state wins for Biden well in advance of other networks. They took a lot of stick for it from the White House.  UPDATE – OK, here we go, Fox have joined in, says Biden has won Pennsylvania, Nevada, and also the US presidency. Fox have the Electoral Colege at  290 – 214 so far.
A big congrats to Kamala Harris, the first female vice-president of the United States.

Biden usa presdient
The trump campaign are still not conceding.

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Since Tuesday the market has taken a Biden win as a strong positive for US stocks. In the FX space ‘risk’ currencies have also taken the upcoming change in US administration as a strong positive. Some of the euphoria will wash off, join me Monday morning for markets reopening for the new week and we’ll see if there is a further leg higher still to come though.

US Election Update: Biden widens lead (except in Arizona but still ahead)

  
  Analysis

Biden holds lead in key four states.

Former VP Biden continues to hold the lead in the 4 key states.  The leads widened in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. The lead for Biden narrowed in Arizona, but he still maintains a lead of close to 30,000 in that state.
The summary now shows:
Georgia:
  • Biden: 2,461,455
  • Trump: 2,454,207
  • Biden up by 7,148
  • There are still some provisional votes and other overseas ballots (up to around 8K) which includes military ballots. Regardless of the outcome, there will be a recount
Nevada.
  • Biden 627,104
  • Trump: 606,967
  • Biden leads 20,227
  • There will be another update at noon ET from  the Sec. of State.  There are 124K votes still to be processed with 58,500 mail in ballots. Mail in ballots should be processed by tomorrow.
Arizona:
  • Biden: 1,604,067
  • Trump: 1,574,206
  • Biden leads by 29.861
  • There are 173K more ballots to process including 47K provisional ballots.  Trump needs to win about 59% to pull into the lead.  The next results will be released from Maricopa county at 11 am ET
Pennsylvania:
  • Biden: 3,336,887
  • Trump 3,308,054
  • Biden leads by 28,833
  • The remaining 90K votes are mail in and 100K or so provisional ballots figure to be in the favor of the Biden.  There is expected to be a update very soon.

Pennsylvania will likely be the state that pushes Biden officially over the the top and officially be declared the 46th President.

Pres. Trump has announced on Twitter that his lawyers will have a press conference in Philadelphia at 11:30 AM ET.  “Enjoy!”
Biden holds lead in key four states.

What’s on the US economic calendar next week

  
  Analysis

Back to the economic data

Back to the economic data
Some day markets will get away from focusing on politics and pandemics but that day won’t be next week, in part because there isn’t much top-tier US economic data.
An unfortunate result of the timing of the US election was that it overlapped with a big week from data/central banks along with the peak of earnings season. So it will be something of an empty feeling next week, but maybe that’s a good thing for everyone.
Monday:
  • Fed’s Mester
Tuesday:
  • NFIB small business optimism
  • JOLTS
  • Fed’s Rosengren, Kaplan, Quarles, Brainard
Wednesday:
  • Veteran’s day (markets open)
Thursday:
  • CPI
  • Initial jobless claims
  • Fed’s Powell and Evans
Friday:
  • PPI
  • U Mich prelim Nov consumer sentiment
  • Fed’s Williams and Bullard
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