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Biden increases leading Nevada to 12K votes

Nevada vote starting to show some changes

  • Biden 597,353, 49.5%
  • Trump 585,311, 48.5%
  • Estimated reporting 87%
  • Biden leads by 12,042 votes with still a number of votes to be counted
  • in Clark County (home of Las Vegas and 70% of the vote) Biden leads 53.1% vs. 45.2% for Trump
  • Biden got 64% of the additional vote in this tranche. That can change depending upon the demographics of the vote

Clinton won 47.9% to 45.5% in 2016.

European shares close higher for the 4th consecutive day

Solid gains once again for the major indices

The European shares are closing higher for the 4th consecutive day. The gains are led by Spain’s Ibex and Italy’s FTSE MIB which are up over 2%.

The provisional closes are showing
  • German DAX, +1.9%
  • France CAC, +1.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +2.0%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +2.0%
The European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mixed with Italy and Spain yields down, and German, UK and Portugal yields up. The French 10 year yield is unchanged on the day.
European yields are mixedIn other markets as European traders look to head for the exits:
  • Spot gold is surging. The price is currently up $43 or 2.28% at $1946.32.
  • Spot silver is also up sharply. It is currently up 100 and $0.11 or 4.64% at $25.01
  • WTI crude oil futures trading down $0.43 or -1.12% at $38.71

US initial claims 751K vs 735K estimate

US initial jobless claims and continuing claims

  • initial jobless claims 751K vs. 735K estimate
  • prior week 751K. The current week was revised to 2758K
  • initial jobless claims 4 week moving average 787K vs. 791K last week
  • continuing claims 7285K vs. 7200K estimate
  • prior week 7756K was revised to 7823K
  • continuing claims 4 week moving average 8244.25K vs 9071.75K
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 24 were in Illinois (+6,190), Michigan (+5,442), Massachusetts (+2,483), Minnesota (+1,848), and Connecticut (+1,621),
  • The largest decreases were in Texas (-10,113), California (-7,700), Florida (-6,528), New York (-3,291), and Louisiana (-3,096).
Although higher than expected, the number this week is the lowest since March 13. Nevertheless, the risk and concern is that another wave of Covid could see the numbers drifting back to the upside again. The big employment news will come tomorrow when the change in nonfarm payroll is expected to show a gain of 600,000. That is lower than the 661,000 last month. The ADP employment report yesterday was weaker than expected at 365K vs. 643K estimate.

Initial jobless claims

European Commission cuts Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast to +4.2% from +6.1%

The European Commission publishes its latest forecasts for the euro area economy – 5 November 2020

  • Eurozone 2020 GDP forecast -7.8% (previously -8.7%)
  • Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast +4.2% (previously +6.1%)
  • Eurozone 2022 GDP forecast +3.0
  • Expects Eurozone economy to contract by 0.1% q/q in Q4
  • Eurozone inflation 0.3% in 2020
  • Eurozone inflation 1.1% in 2021
  • Eurozone inflation 1.3% in 2022
The commission adds that the technical assumption for the forecasts is that there will be no trade deal between the EU and UK once the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December. Adding that the forecasts are surrounded by ‘exceptional uncertainty’.
EC
Given recent virus developments, the changes to the projections are very much expected but these are still relatively optimistic in my view. I expect far worse projections given the tigther virus restrictions so the forecasts above may well be outdated.
Anyway, this serves as an anecdote that if the virus situation doesn’t get any better in the coming year, we are going to keep rolling back this downgrade update every quarter.

US election count in state of Georgia – Trump may ask for a recount if he loses

We should get an update on the tally from Gerogia around 0530GMT.

Its very close, Trump is ahead but the political pundits are still tipping Biden given the trend in votes being counted. Predominantly urban votes going to Biden. The last approx 28K votes counted were 22k for Biden.
While Pennsylvania is not close to finishing counting the trend in those votes remaining to be being is 4 to 1 favouring Biden. Pundits again tipping Biden to take that state (not, tipping,m not actually calling it).

Eyes on who will take the presidency, but what about the Senate?

It seems most likely that the Republican Party will maintain its hold on the US upper house.

The count is still not finished yet but I’m gonna say its a Republican majority is “most likely”.
There are various implications, of most note for markets though (this in a nutshell) is
  • Biden’s tax rises will be opposed
  • and, even more importantly for markets further coronavirus economic stimulus will be small scale only