Archives of “November 7, 2020” day

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US Election Update: Biden widens lead (except in Arizona but still ahead)

  
  Analysis

Biden holds lead in key four states.

Former VP Biden continues to hold the lead in the 4 key states.  The leads widened in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. The lead for Biden narrowed in Arizona, but he still maintains a lead of close to 30,000 in that state.
The summary now shows:
Georgia:
  • Biden: 2,461,455
  • Trump: 2,454,207
  • Biden up by 7,148
  • There are still some provisional votes and other overseas ballots (up to around 8K) which includes military ballots. Regardless of the outcome, there will be a recount
Nevada.
  • Biden 627,104
  • Trump: 606,967
  • Biden leads 20,227
  • There will be another update at noon ET from  the Sec. of State.  There are 124K votes still to be processed with 58,500 mail in ballots. Mail in ballots should be processed by tomorrow.
Arizona:
  • Biden: 1,604,067
  • Trump: 1,574,206
  • Biden leads by 29.861
  • There are 173K more ballots to process including 47K provisional ballots.  Trump needs to win about 59% to pull into the lead.  The next results will be released from Maricopa county at 11 am ET
Pennsylvania:
  • Biden: 3,336,887
  • Trump 3,308,054
  • Biden leads by 28,833
  • The remaining 90K votes are mail in and 100K or so provisional ballots figure to be in the favor of the Biden.  There is expected to be a update very soon.

Pennsylvania will likely be the state that pushes Biden officially over the the top and officially be declared the 46th President.

Pres. Trump has announced on Twitter that his lawyers will have a press conference in Philadelphia at 11:30 AM ET.  “Enjoy!”
Biden holds lead in key four states.

What’s on the US economic calendar next week

  
  Analysis

Back to the economic data

Back to the economic data
Some day markets will get away from focusing on politics and pandemics but that day won’t be next week, in part because there isn’t much top-tier US economic data.
An unfortunate result of the timing of the US election was that it overlapped with a big week from data/central banks along with the peak of earnings season. So it will be something of an empty feeling next week, but maybe that’s a good thing for everyone.
Monday:
  • Fed’s Mester
Tuesday:
  • NFIB small business optimism
  • JOLTS
  • Fed’s Rosengren, Kaplan, Quarles, Brainard
Wednesday:
  • Veteran’s day (markets open)
Thursday:
  • CPI
  • Initial jobless claims
  • Fed’s Powell and Evans
Friday:
  • PPI
  • U Mich prelim Nov consumer sentiment
  • Fed’s Williams and Bullard

CFTC commitments of traders: The EUR position is cut again

  
Analysis, Forex

Forex futures positioning for the week ending November 3, 2020.

  • EUR long 140K vs 156K long last week. Longs trimmed by 15K
  • GBP short 11K vs 7K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • JPY long 28K vs 18K long last week. Longs increased by 10K
  • CHF long 15K vs 15K long last week. No change in net position
  • AUD short 1K vs 9K long last week. Shorts increased by 10K
  • NZD long 7K vs 7K long last week. No change in net position
  • CAD short 21k vs 18K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K

The EUR long position continues to be trimmed from the high on September 1 week at 212K (was an all time high position as well).  It currently is at long 140K.  The position has been trimmed for the last 6 weeks.  However, it still remains the largest position by far (the next is the JPY at long 28K).

Other highlights:
  • AUD this went from long to short but only by 1K
  • The CHF and NZD positions remained largely unchanged
  • The  JPY is the next largest position at 28K.
  • The largest short position is the CAD at short 21K.
Forex futures positioning for the week ending November 3, 2020.

Stocks closed little changed. Stocks enjoy the best week since April

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ closes up 9% for the week

The major indices are closing little changed.

  • The NASDAQ index closed marginally higher for the 5th consecutive day
  • the S&P index fell marginally snapping a 4 day winning streak
  • the Dow industrial average also fell snapping its 4 day winning streak
  • major indices have their best week since April
  • NASDAQ winning streak is the longest since August
A look at the final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -0.98 points or -0.03% at 3509.47. The high price reached 3521.58. The low price extended to 3484.34
  • NASDAQ index rose 4.3 points or 0.04% at 11895.23. The high price reached 11920.54. The low price extended to 11737.13
  • Dow industrial average fell 66.78 points or -0.24% at 28323.46. The high price reached 28431.96. The low price extended to 28189.50
For the week:
  • S&P index rose 7.32%
  • NASDAQ index rose 9.01%
  • Dow industrial average rose 6.87% despite today’s decline
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