Archives of “October 2020” month

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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.05% at 23,422.82

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Nikkei closes near flat but well off earlier lows

Nikkei 07-10
Asian equities slumped early on, following US stocks overnight but have recovered some ground in late trading as US futures rose ahead of European morning trade.
Trump sent risk assets packing yesterday but attempted to somewhat walk back on those remarks with more tweets earlier, offering some piecemeal concessions to stimulus talks.
That could be what is helping to see the risk mood recover a little but let’s be real, there is no way the Democrats will accept any of that to help his current plight.
Elsewhere, major currencies are still keeping little changed but the slight nudge higher in US futures is keeping USD/JPY a little elevated at 105.75, near resistance at 105.80.

Germany reports 2,828 new coronavirus cases, another 16 deaths in latest update

  
  Analysis

The daily case count is the highest since 18 April

This brings the total active cases in the country to over 28,000 and that is the most since 30 April. The 16 deaths reported brings the total tally on that front to 9,562 persons.
The virus situation still isn’t turning a corner over the past two weeks and that may see the government respond with more restrictive measures soon enough.
If anything else, this is also a signal that the recovery going into Q4 may hit a few stumbling blocks as virus fears and localised restrictions will weigh on sentiment.
As such, this will still be a spot to watch for the euro and the ECB in the coming weeks.

BOJ Gov Kuroda says full global economic recovery is further down the road

  
Analysis, Economy

Speech by Governor Kuroda at the 62nd Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics

Topic is:
  • COVID-19 and the Global Economy: Impact and Challenges
Headlines via Reuters:
  • full-fledged recovery of global economy seems much further down the road
  • downturn of the asian economy has been moderate in comparison with other regions
  • asian financial markets have been able to weather impact of covid-19 due to build-up of foreign currency reserves, swift and aggressive implementation of fiscal and monetary measures
  • supply chains in asia have been disrupted due to strict public health measures
  • domestic demand has been weak in many asian economies, reflecting deterioration in employment and income conditions
  • recent pandemic has exposed certain vulnerabilities in asian supply chain networks
  • business reforms triggered by covid-19 are expected to boost productivity in asia in longer term
  • key for asia to achieving sustainable growth is to work toward realising inclusive, green and digital economy
  • covid-19 pandemic has highlighted importance of regional, international cooperation in implementing appropriate measures vs economic shocks
  • fundamental importance of globalization to global economy will not change

China state media report on projections for 360,000 US coronavirus deaths by year end

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Xinhua citing a new forecast from the University of Washington

  • According to the new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, COVID-19 deaths in the country would surpass 2,900 a day by Jan. 1, and the total would reach 363,269.
  • The IHME model projected over 135,900 hospital beds are needed by Jan. 1 to take care of the infected.
I’m not sure if this is an election-related piece from Xinhua. As in trying to influence the election?
Whatever it is, its a sad forecast indeed for the US.

UK coronavirus – PM Johson considering imposing tougher lockdown restrictions

  
  Analysis
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UK media (Sun) reporting Boris Johnson is pondering even tougher restrictions

  • tougher lockdown restrictions for millions of people in the north of England
Due to the continued surge in COVID-19 cases.
More from the report:
  • there is “simply no reasonable alternative” to restrictions
  • Pubs and restaurants face closure in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle
  • Some shops could also be forced to shut
  • workplaces and schools would remain open.
  • A No 10 source said: “The numbers are going the wrong way, and there will come a point very soon where we simply have to do more.”

Senate leader McConnell says he agrees with Trump decision to pull out of coronavirus relief talks

  
  Analysis

I’ve been highlighting the Senate being implacably opposed to further stimulus for over a month.

McConnell has been unable to get the numbers from his Republican party members to pass a stimulus bill in the Senate. Trump pulling the pin takes the heat off Mr Mc. he can head back to Kentucky now for the election, hand out some opioids from his big pharma pals, take a bit of cash, and count his $.
I've been highlighting the Senate being implacably opposed to further stimulus for over a month. The look of lurve ….

Overnight : US stocks end sharply lower

  
Analysis, US Market

Trump bombshell has investors on edge

The US stocks are ending the session sharply lower, but having said that the declines today are less than the gains from yesterday.

A look at the closes shows.
  • S&P index down -47.66 points or -1.4% to 3360.97. Yesterday the index closed up 6.18 points
  • NASDAQ index fell -177.88 points or -1.57% to 11154.60. Yesterday the index rose by 257.46 points
  • Dow industrial average fell -375.80 points or -1.34% to 27772.76.  Yesterday the index rose by 465.77 points
Perhaps the market is a bit confused as to what the intentions of Pres. Trump is and whether he is using this is a plow to gain some competitive advantage in negotiations.  It is hard to figure out… What we know is that investors are on edge as they decipher the next chapter in this 2020 thriller.
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