Archives of “July 2020” month

rss

Trump floats the idea of delaying the US election

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

That’s a big change

For all the people who were worried about Trump calling off the election, this is some hard evidence.
With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???
I’m not a constitutional expert but I believe the November 3 election date is locked in with virtually no flexibility. But he sure is laying the groundwork for questioning the results or refusing to leave if he loses.
The market can ignore a lot of talk from Trump but there’s a limit and this is getting closer to it.

US five-year yields hit a fresh record low as bonds rally

  
  Analysis

The bond market isn’t sending a great message

The bond market isn't sending a great message
If you believe that the bond market still means something, then buckle up. Treasury yields are lower across the curve today but 5-year yields are particularly notable because they’ve hit an all-time low for the second day. Today they’re down 1.7 bps to a low of 0.2343%.
Zooming out a bit, 10-year yields are also threatening major support. The April low was 0.5394% and we’re at 0.5478%. A close here would be the second-lowest on record after the March 9 spike low.
Equity futures have also taken a negative tone with S&P 500 futures down 25 points after yesterday’s 40-point gain.

Global Times: US government helped the coronavirus kill as many American people as possible

  
  Analysis

Hu Xijin is Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times

Says the
Novel coronavirus will present a medal to US government, for this government standing firmly with the virus, helping it kill as many American people as possible. Most of the US senior officials will be safe because the virus needs them.
Hu Xijin is Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times
This account is a good indicator of the state of US-China relations, which, as you can see, are at a low ebb.

More info on that Russian COVID-19 vaccine: 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

Head of its sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which is financing the country’s vaccine research:
  • Russia aims to secure approval for the first Covid-19 vaccine in the first two weeks of August
  • expects to produce 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide
The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

Recap of the FOMC, “as expected” … but US Congress fiscal policy remains an unknown

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Via CIBC Research on Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement.

“Today’s FOMC announcement unfolded largely as expected, with policymakers commenting that economic activity and employment remain well below where they stood prior to the pandemic, despite picking up somewhat in recent months. Indeed, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain since the last meeting on account of the surge in virus cases and the re-tightening of social distancing in many states, with the Fed noting that the path forward for the economy depends significantly on the virus which is expected to weigh heavily on activity in the near term. While the Fed stands ready to do more to support the recovery, as shown by the extension in several credit facilities beyond their initial deadlines, the fiscal support package being discussed by Congress remains an unknown” 

“As a result, they appear to have opted to wait for the September meeting, when the next set of forecasts are due, to provide more concrete forward guidance on future rate hikes by perhaps tying them to the outcome of a macro variable. Tomorrow’s Q2 GDP report will provide a starting point for assessing the scale of the output gap” 

The full statement of the FOMC rate decision for July 2020

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

FOMC Rate statement for July 2020

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued July 29, 2020

Technology antitrust hearing underway for Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook

  
  Analysis

Lawmakers collected hundreds of hours of interviews and obtained more than 1.3 million documents about Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. Yes 1.3M documents.
Most members probably read a 10 page briefing or made a judgment after searching on Google using their Apple iPhone and after reading something on their Facebook feed and purchasing grocery delivery on Amazon.
The NASDAQ index is trading at 10506.39 as the hearing gets underway.
PS Pres. Trump is not a huge fan apparently:
Pres. Trump is not a fan
Go to top