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The full statement of the FOMC rate decision for July 2020

FOMC Rate statement for July 2020

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued July 29, 2020

Technology antitrust hearing underway for Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook

Lawmakers collected hundreds of hours of interviews and obtained more than 1.3 million documents about Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. Yes 1.3M documents.
Most members probably read a 10 page briefing or made a judgment after searching on Google using their Apple iPhone and after reading something on their Facebook feed and purchasing grocery delivery on Amazon.
The NASDAQ index is trading at 10506.39 as the hearing gets underway.
PS Pres. Trump is not a huge fan apparently:
Pres. Trump is not a fan

US weekly oil inventories -10611K vs +450K expected

Weekly US oil inventory data

  • Prior oil was +4892K
  • Gasoline +654K vs -2000K expected
  • Distillates +503K vs +1000K exp
  • Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.5% exp
  • Production 11.1 mbpd vs 11.1 prior
API data from late yesterday:
  • Crude -6829K
  • Cushing +1144K
  • Gasoline +1083K
  • Distillates +187K
Oil prices rose about 15 cents on the headlines. That’s the largest draw of the year and it’s entirely due to a 10462K draw at PADD 3, which is on the gulf coast.
In terms of oil, one thing to watch is a potential tropical cycle in the mid-atlantic. It’s on a track that could hit the gulf and Florida.
Florida

Trump: Admin and Democrats are far apart on virus relief bill

You never know what the real state of play is

There have been so many positive and (mostly) negative reports from top officials about the state of play on negotiations. Ultimately, everyone believes in some kind of compromise and it could happen quickly. The congressional recess is Aug 6, so expect something right before that.
As for the near-term, expect Powell to offer several reminders to Congress to get moving.

USDJPY consolidates near lows. Some intraday bull and bear.

Battle near the lows as buyers and sellers more balanced at the levels

The USDJPY transitioned from non-trend to trend on Friday – breaking below the swing lows at the 106.65 area. The pair has trended lower with the price moving down to a low of 104.793 earlier today.  Looking at the hourly chart, that low was able to get below a lower trendline, but momentum stalled and the price has rebounded back up toward the closing level from yesterday and the highs for today.
Battle near the lows as buyers and sellers more balanced at the levels
The inability to extend lower and a declining momentum, gives dip buyers some hope.  However, the pair still needs to get above the 38.2 to 50% retracement of the most recent trend leg lower in the 105.13 to 105.237 area (see lower yellow area in the chart above).
The pair has been stepping down with 3 separate trend legs on the way down since breaking lower on Friday.
The 1st move lower corrected toward the 38.2% retracement (see higher yellow area) and resumed the trend lower.
The 2nd leg down found sellers near the 50% retracement (at 105.626) and the low from Friday at 105.677 and resumed the trend lower (see middle yellow area).
The last leg down has the “correction zone” of the 38.2-50%  between 105.132 and 105.237. The high price has stalled between those 2 levels so far today.
Getting above the 50% of the last trend leg lower, is the minimum requirement (and staying above) if the buyers are to try to take more control.  The downward sloping trendline is moving toward that level as well and would need to be broken (and stay broken).
Failure to break above those levels, keeps the sellers in control.  Putting it another way, the buyers are not taking control. The buyers have to prove that they can start to break the back of the trend sellers  They did show up near the low trend line today, but they have more to prove if there is to be more upside probing from these levels.

US dollar catches an early bid on Fed day

USD/JPY pops

Short-term speculators are no-doubt short the US dollar so some position squaring early today into the FOMC decision make sense. We’re also closing in on month-end so flow driven trades are going to be a factor.
The Fed decision is at 1800 GMT with Powell 30 minutes later. I’ll be looking for commentary on the economy as the top market mover. If it’s negative, the Fed will have to offer more strong hints at easing to keep the equity babies bulls at bay.
Other economic data today is a mish-mash of second tier data including:
  • US trade balance (advance goods)
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Pending home sales
  • Weekly oil inventories.
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