Archives of “May 2020” month

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Goldman Sachs: Lockdown measures have reduced global GDP by an estimated 16%

  
Analysis, Economy
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Will countries even consider lockdown measures a second time?

Lockdownh/t @ tracyalloway

One of the most heated debates across the world still is whether or not the cure is more damaging than the disease itself. The cure of course being lockdown measures implemented by governments to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
You have to wonder, if we are on the cusp of a secondary outbreak in some major economies, can governments so easily make a decision to go into lockdown again?
As much as it is a health concern, the political pressures from an economic perspective could be a major consequence for a lot of governments if we do see such a scenario happen.
Just some food for thought. But yes, as warranted as the lockdown measures are to contain the spread and to not overburden medical capacity, it does come with a heavy cost.

China says that US has no evidence that coronavirus originated in a lab

  
  Analysis

Comments by China foreign ministry spokesperson, Hua Chunying

Virus
  • Rejects presumption of guilt made out by some figures in the US
  • Open to working with WHO to find the cause of the coronavirus
Just be reminded that while there are many headlines doing the rounds on the reopening of economies, US-China relations are still in a precarious spot amid trade tensions and the coronavirus blame game in recent weeks.

US-China trade war. War of words heating up – a reminder of where tariffs are

  
  Analysis
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US President Trump and others in his administration have once again been ramping up anti-China rhetoric.

Which has brought the trade war back into focus. Currently we are at a ‘phase 1’ agreement (of many more to come potentially, phase 1 barely scratched the surface). With Trump’s blaming China, for pretty much anything and everything it seems, it raises the prospect of little progress ahead on trade issues. And with the US election to come in November its likely Trump will continue to aim belligerence at China.
Via the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) a representation of where tariffs are, in summary:
US President Trump and others in his administration have once again been ramping up anti-China rhetoric.
Keep on eye out for progress, though I do not expect any. Escalation of the trade war is a negative for ‘risk’ (we saw this last week with a drop in, for example, the AUD) as Trump’s bellicose comments gained market attention once again.

Major indices close higher, but well off the highs for the day

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ index leads the way but off 100 points from session highs

the major indices are closing higher but well off the highs for the day. Comments from

Fed Vice Chairman Clarida gave traders cause for pause that a “V” recovery was right around the corner. The Nasdaq index got within about 0.80% from the unchanged on the year level. Surpassing that level was not to be.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 25.70 points or 0.9% to 2868.44. The high reached 2898.23. The low extended to 2863.55
  • Nasdaq index rose and 98.406 points or 1.13% to 8809.12. The close was down 100 points off of the high for the day at 8909.96. The low was down at 8781.309
  • Dow Industrial average rose 133.33 point or 0.56% at 23883.09. The high reached 24169.72.  The low extended to 23868.91

European shares end the session with solid gains

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Shrugs off German court news

The German courts didn’t necessarily say the ECB QE measures could not be done, but they do want more information to justify their actions.  The European markets are shrugging off the decision and closing higher on the day:
  • German DAX, +2.5%
  • France’s CAC, +2.3%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.73%
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