Archives of “March 2020” month

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China, North Korea, Russia, Iran are all ‘hard targets’ to get accurate coronavirus information from

  
  Analysis
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While we await action to come from the Asian time zone here is an interesting item on getting data on COVID-19 from some countries.

Via, Reuters, citing five U.S. government sources familiar with the intelligence reporting.
  • US agencies have limited insight into the full impact of the pandemic in the four countries, known by U.S. spy agencies as “hard targets” because of the heavy state controls on information and the difficulty, even in normal times, of collecting intelligence from within their closed leadership circles.
  • An accurate assessment of those countries’ outbreaks would aid U.S. and international efforts to limit the human and economic tolls from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, experts say.
While we await action to come from the Asian time zone here is an interesting item on getting data on COVID-19 from some countries. 

China PMI data for March due Tuesday 31 March 2020 – preview

  
Analysis, Economy

The official PMIs from China are due at 0100GMT.

  • Manufacturing expected 44.8% m/m, prior 35.7%
  • Non-manufacturing expected 42.0% y/y, prior 29.6%
  • Composite prior 28.9
China went into the crisis earlier and have begun to emerge earlier. March data should begin to show improvement, February data is a low hurdle to clear.
Analysis I’ve seen on daily tracking of economic indicators from China are (slowly) showing a return to better activity. I won’t say ‘normal’, but activity is much better than in February.

US stocks close near session highs. Solid day higher.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Broad indices move up over 3% on the day

The US stocks moved up to a new session high but backed off just a bit into the close.  It was still a solid day higher.
The major indices are closing at:
  • S&P index rose 5.02 points or 3.35% to 2626.49.
  • Nasdaq index rose 271.77 points or 3.62% tp 7774.15.
  • Dow industrial average rose 688.32 points or 3.18% to 22325.10.
Although the price extended to new session highs in the major indices during the last hour, the volatility was a bit less than recent history. The snapshot at 3 PM showed:
  • S&P index up 70.44 points or 2.77% at 2611.91. The index moved up to a high of 2631.80 in the last hour.
  • NASDAQ index +225.28 points or 3.0% at 7727.66. The index moved up to a high of 7784.34 in the last hour
  • Dow up 526.39 points or 2.43% at 22163.12. The index moved up to a high of 22378.09 in the last hour.
Some winners today included:
  • Johnson & Johnson, +7.9%
  • Merck, +7.45%
  • Microsoft, +7.15%
  • Intel, +5.98%
  • Caterpillar, +5.88%
  • Facebook, +5.77%
  • Pfizer, +5.76%
  • Chubb, +5.32%
  • Nvidia, +5.15%
  • Coca-Cola, +5.04%
  • Walmart, +5.04%
  • Phillip Morris, +4.74%
  • IBM, +4.54%
  • General Mills, +4.42%
  • Gilead +4.30%
  • Adobe +4.22%

Some losers today included:

  • United Airlines, -8.08%
  • Boeing, -5.93%
  • Southwest Airlines -3.52%
  • Delta, -2.98%
  • Tesla, -2.43%
  • Papa John’s, -2.32%
  • Wells Fargo, -1.19%
  • Slack, -1.09%
  • Raytheon, -0.73%
  • DuPont, -0.62%
  • Lockheed Martin, -0.57%

European major indices end the session with mostly gains. Spain’s Ibex down however

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Major indices recovered from sharp declines earlier in the day

European major indices are ending the session with mostly gains. Spain’s Ibex is the exception. Most of the indices are well off of their earlier lows:

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.6%. The low reached -1.86%
  • France’s CAC, +0.5%. The low reached -3.1%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.9%. The low reached -2.88%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.15%. The low reached -3.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.7%. The low reached -3.0%
in the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mixed with Germany, France and UK yields lower while Spain, Italy, Portugal yields moving higher:
Major indices recovered from sharp declines earlier in the day_

Trump says he plans a call with Putin today to discuss oil

  
  Analysis
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Trump in Fox News interview

  • Trump says he will the Russian President Putin on Monday to discuss oil and other matters
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia “both went crazy” on oil issue
The US lambasted OPEC and Saudi Arabia for generations for keeping oil prices artificially high and operating a cartel. Now that OPEC has blown up, the same pearl clutchers don’t want anything to do with the free market. The reality is that the US has flooded the world with uneconomic oil for years because of Federal Reserve largess.
In any case, the oil market likes what the President is saying. Russia will certainly listen if the US offers to reduce sanctions. WTI has pared its decline and is back to $20.60 from $20.10 minutes ago.

Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil exports by another 600k bpd starting from May

  
  Analysis
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According to a Saudi energy ministry official

That will bring total crude oil exports by the kingdom to 10.6 mil bpd, as the official says the increase in exports is due to displacing crude with natural gas and drop in local demand.

Epic battle of oil market giants: Who will win?

  
  Analysis
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The tug of war for power in the oil market

IF 1
Once upon a time, lived a very powerful person who decided that he had enough authority to change the world and oust his less powerful rival. At first, his plan succeeded since his less mighty rival went into the shadows.

However, in one remote kingdom near the Persian Gulf, several men, completely unconcerned with questions of authority, decided to teach the arrogant person a lesson and paid him back in his own coin.

It seems strange that no one in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has warned the president about the disastrous consequences of his recent decision.

Why did nobody in the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Finance, or in the Council of Ministers recall that the Russian oil market is in the doldrums? Moreover, there are countries like Saudi Arabia that are literally awash in oil. (more…)

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