Archives of “January 29, 2020” day

rss

British Airways suspends bookings of direct flights to China until March

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

In response to the coronavirus outbreak situation

The airline has halted bookings on its website for direct flights from London to Beijing and Shanghai until March, after warnings over travel to China.

They are still offering connecting flights though, with the layover being in Hong Kong (mostly) before passengers have to continue with a different airline.

Reuters tried to get in contact with BA on the matter, but a spokeswoman just said that they were “assessing the situation”.

If we do see more airlines and countries take more drastic measures, expect that to weigh further on the Chinese economy and in turn, the global economy to start the year.

Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis
#  #  #

Good day, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. It’s been a tug of war in the battle of risk since trading yesterday as markets are once again now appearing to shrug off fears concerning the coronavirus outbreak.

Major currencies are trading keeping more calm with the aussie leading gains after a slightly better-than-expected Australian Q4 CPI data earlier. That said, the trimmed mean reading – RBA’s preferred measure – still remains below its target band of 2-3%.
Looking ahead, it is going to be all about the risk mood once again with little notable data releases in the European morning. But with Apple earnings keeping investors hopeful, perhaps the situation will be more calm in the hours ahead.
As such, expect coronavirus headlines to continue to dominate proceedings before we move on to the Fed later today and more key tech earnings in Wall Street.
0700 GMT – Germany December import price index
Prior release can be found here. A proxy indicator of price pressures in the German economy. A minor data point.
0700 GMT – UK January Nationwide house prices
Prior release can be found here. A general overview of housing market conditions in the UK economy. Not a major release by any means.
0700 GMT – Germany February GfK consumer confidence
Prior release can be found here. An indication of consumer morale towards the German economy, which has been keeping more subdued lately. Expectation is for the reading to reflect similar sentiment in the early stages of the year.
0745 GMT – France January consumer confidence
Prior release can be found here. A general read of confidence towards the French economy, which has been holding up decently – but not suggestive of anything stellar; which mirrors the economic performance of the country since last year.
0900 GMT – Eurozone December M3 money supply data
Prior report can be found here. A gauge of credit conditions in the euro area economy, which continues to be holding up well despite economic concerns. A minor data point
0900 GMT – Switzerland January Credit Suisse investor sentiment
Prior release can be found here. The reading measures analysts’ expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months. Low-tier data.
1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 January
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!

11 Wuhan residents traveling back from abroad were found infected with the coronavirus

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The Global Times conveying the report citing China customs

  • 11 Wuhan residents traveling back from abroad were found infected with the novel coronavirus as of 6 am Tuesday
Well, that’d suck.
So, its probably reasonable to say that some of these folks (likely all of them) headed away from Wuhan while inflected but not showing any symptoms, and by the time they returned began to show symptoms (fever, for example).
Its probably also reasonable to think they have infected others while away.

Warning on the potential for a recession due to the coronavirus – a critical ‘cushion’

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

  • Historically, the rapid expansion of cross-border trade has been an important part of the global growth cushion that shields the world economy from all-too-frequent shocks. 
  • Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period. With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets’ increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects.
—
Who is Roach?
  • a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
  • a senior lecturer at Yale School of Management
  • formerly chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and chief economist at Morgan Stanley
Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

Check this out to put the coronavirus impact into perspective

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

This is one perspective, there will be others.

  • When the SARS epidemic hit in 2003 China had an economy size aroiund USD 1.7 tln
  • Today it is nearly an order of magnitude larger, around USD 13.7 tln
  • & China’s economy accounts for around a third of global GDP growth

ps.  this from Apple’s Tim Cook on what is happening with his business in China this week:

  • “We have closed one of our retail stores and a number of channel partners have also closed their store fronts. Our sales within the Wuhan areas are small, but retail traffic has also been impacted cross the country (China) in the last few days.”

Bolding mine.

Multiply the impact on traffic to Apple stores across the economy.

china coronavirus

Go to top