Archives of “January 15, 2020” day

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UBS is calling for 3 Federal Reserve rat cuts this year. Yes, three!

  
  Analysis
Federal Open Market Committee could lower interest rates three times in 2020,
  • tariffs implemented in the US-China trade war expected to drag down US growth to just 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2020
  • “We think this tariff damage is going to push U.S. growth down … that’s actually going to trigger three Fed cuts, which is way off consensus, nobody believes that,”
And, the hedge:
  • the impact from tariffs could just be temporary and that the US is not headed into a recession
More at that link, above
CNBC spoke with the global head of economic research at UBS and came away with the bombshell call

JP Morgan technical analysis says S&P500 not even close to a bubble – more to go

  
Analysis, US Market

Bloomberg with an extract from a JPM note on the stock market, arguing the S&P 500 in not overextended yet.

  • “The index would have to meet or exceed 3,700 in the second half of the year for the 12-month growth rate pattern to line up
  • The 2017-2019 S&P 500 growth rate arguably matches the performance leading up to prior bubble formations. However, the most important phase and yearlong period of elevated performance still needs to develop before we would classify price action as a bubble.”
O
K
then …

US President Trump has said to Apple they should unlock murderers phone

  
  Analysis
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This re (yet another) mass  shooting in the US

  • On a US military base on December 6 last year
  • Three sailors killed
  • eight wounded
So far the multi-millionaires in Apple’s management have refused to unlock two phones used by the shooter.
apple cookAll the way to the bank
Trump’s Tweet:
  • We are helping Apple all of the time on TRADE and so many other issues, and yet they refuse to unlock phones used by killers, drug dealers  and other violent criminal elements. They will have to step up to the plate and help our great Country, NOW! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

US Treas Sec Mnuchin says tariffs on China to remain in place until phase 2

  
  Analysis
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US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin

  • says tariffs will stay in place until there’s a phase 2 of china trade agreement
  • says Trump may consider removing tariffs under phase 2
  • says China has made strong commitments it will not manipulate currency

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin 

S&P 500 falls 5 points after touching record

  
Analysis, US Market

Tariff story turned markets

Maybe markets had run too far or maybe they turned on a report saying there was no agreement to further reduce US tariffs on China as part of the deal. That’s not a surprise but it was a reminder that it’s not exactly peace-and-love between Beijing and Washington. The signing ceremony and deal publication are tomorrow.
  • S&P 500 down 5 points to 3283 after hitting record 3294
  • DJIA +0.1%
  • Nasdaq -0.2%
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