Archives of “January 11, 2020” day

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US tried to assassinate another Iranian official at the same time as Soleimani – report

  
  Analysis
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Washington Post report

On the same day US forces launched a drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, they launched another operation to kill a senior Iranian official in Yemen, the Washington Post reports.
The assassination did not succeed but it’s raising questions on whether this was truly designed to stop an imminent attack, as US officials have said. Or if the plan was to cripple Iran’s military leadership.
The target was Abdul Reza Shahlai, a financier and key commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force who has been active in Yemen.
The details about what happened aren’t clear but the news increases the risks that the US will strike again and that Iran won’t wait until they do.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Dollar bulls retreat

  
Analysis, Forex

Futures forex positioning data for the week ending January 7, 2020:

  • EUR short 61K vs 74K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 13K
  • GBP long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increased by 5K
  • JPY short 12K vs 25K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 13k
  • CHF short 4K vs 6K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 38K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 11K
  • NZD short 1K vs 5K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • CAD long 26k vs 12K long last week. Longs increased by 14K

The theme across the board was less enthusiasm for the dollar. All the dollar longs were trimmed and there are growing longs in CAD and GBP. Is this really the big turn in the dollar? There is certainly some room to run on the speculative side before we get even close.

Here’s a look at the GBP net:
GBP net cftc

US stocks stumble after hitting record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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Closing changes for North American trade on January 10, 2020:

Closing changes for North American trade on January 10, 2020:
On the day:
  • S&P 500 down 9 points to 3265 after hitting 3282 (-0.3%)
  • DJIA down 133 points to 28823
  • Nasdaq down 24 points to 9178

On the week:

  • S&P 500 up 0.9%
  • DJIA up 0.7%
  • Nasdaq +1.75%

The turnaround today is a bit of warning signal. Note that January is a weak seasonal month but there is a long-term trend of strength early in the month. I also tend to think the signing of the ‘phase one’ deal is sell-the-fact risk.

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