Archives of “November 2019” month

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China likes Trump as US president: a “business man”, “would be glad to have him re-elected”

  
  Analysis
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Despite the US-China tensions it seems China is very happy to be negotiating with US President Trump.

Washington Post carries the endorsement:
  • “Trump is a businessman. We can just pay him money and the problems will be solved,” said a politically connected person in Beijing, speaking on the condition of anonymity 
  • he is “easy to read,” said Long Yongtu, a former vice minister of foreign trade
  • “We want Trump to be reelected; we would be glad to see that happen.”
Its worth checking out the article, there is plenty more. Here is the link and it isn’t long.
It makes the ‘China is waiting it out until after the US election’ point of view less valid?
China is very happy to be negotiating with US President Trump.

Morgan Stanley fires four FX traders after concealing $100-$140m loss

  
  Analysis
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Traders may have mismarked emerging markets trades

Morgan Stanley has fired or placed on leave four FX traders suspected of mismarking trades linked to emerging market currencies, Bloomberg reports.
The New York and London-based traders are part of a probe into mismarked trades that concealed a loss of $100-$140 million and is related to options trades.

North Korea has launched more test missiles

  
Analysis, Politics

Yonhap (South Korean media) with the reports of NK firing off missiles again today

  • ‘super large multiple rocket launcher’
Sheesh …. that doesn’t sound too good.
Yen not doing a real lot on it. In the past missile launches from NK have seen yen gains (a flight to liquidity response) but the market response has transformed into a yawn on these. until that changes again.

US dollar keeps the momentum going

  
Analysis, Forex

Bloomberg dollar index at 7-week high

The DXY is the standard dollar index but it’s weightings are flawed, which is why I prefer the Bloomberg Dollar Index and its trade-weighted nature.
It highlights how the US dollar has climbed from a three-month low at the start of the month to a seven-week high in a steady rally.
It’s up once again today despite the US holiday as the antipodeans and pound slide.
Bloomberg dollar index at 7-week high
I don’t like to do technical analysis on an index but there isn’t much standing in the way of a further rally.
The kicker for me right now is that yields haven’t offered much support. US 10s are at 1.76% and that’s down from nearly 2% three weeks ago. The market continues to price in a 50% chance of a Fed cut by next July and I think as that comes out, there’s more upside for the dollar — especially against the funding currencies (JPY, CHF, EUR).
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